P5 V4 baseline

DET at CAR

Sunday, October 4 · 7:20 PM CDT

DET 22.4 — CAR 24.6

CAR slight edge · CAR 52.5%

Projected total 47.1 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects CAR slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans CAR →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 147 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 4 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Bryce Young · CAR

Attempts
33.7 mean · 32.0 median · 24.0–48.0 80%
Completions
22.7 mean · 22.0 median · 16.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
241 mean · 227 median · 141–368 80%
Passing TD
1.63 mean · 78% 1+
Interceptions
0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jared Goff · DET

Attempts
33.1 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
Completions
21.6 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
247 mean · 244 median · 153–326 80%
Passing TD
1.50 mean · 75% 1+
Interceptions
0.70 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

AJ Dillon · CAR

Opportunities
8.1 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Carries
7.0 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 34 median · 9–61 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
High

Chuba Hubbard · CAR

Opportunities
11.5 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Carries
9.7 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 28 median · 14–64 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
High

Jahmyr Gibbs · DET

Opportunities
14.9 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Carries
11.3 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
44 mean · 41 median · 13–76 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 21 median · 0–45 80%
Total TD
38% 1+
High

Sione Vaki · DET

Opportunities
6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–16.0 80%
Carries
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.2 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
31 mean · 28 median · 0–67 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 0 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mitchell Evans · CAR · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 19 median · 9–38 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Tommy Tremble · CAR · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 20 median · 10–51 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Jalen Coker · CAR · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 47 median · 23–70 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Medium

Xavier Legette · CAR · WR

Targets
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 22 median · 0–68 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 42 median · 14–85 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
Medium

Sam LaPorta · DET · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 34 median · 11–57 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Brock Wright · DET · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 9 median · 0–35 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR

Targets
6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 49 median · 0–97 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 3.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 27 median · 13–67 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

Jameson Williams · DET · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 48 median · 0–96 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DET 22.4 — CAR 24.6

CAR · 52.5% win probability

Margin
CAR 2.2
Total
47.1

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DETWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jared Goff · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joshua Dobbs · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jahmyr Gibbs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Sione Vaki · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jacob Saylors · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Sam LaPorta · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brock Wright · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tyler Conklin · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #4 — Jackson Meeks · Practice squad

WR official #1 — Amon-Ra St. Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tom Kennedy · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jameson Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Isaac TeSlaa · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tay Martin · Availability unknown

CARWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bryce Young · Full

QB official #2 — Kenny Pickett · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Haynes King · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chuba Hubbard · Did not participate

RB official #2 — AJ Dillon · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Tommy Tremble · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mitchell Evans · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Darren Waller · Did not participate

TE official #4 — Ja'Tavion Sanders · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Feleipe Franks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Coker · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Tetairoa McMillan · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brycen Tremayne · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Xavier Legette · Did not participate

WR official #2 — John Metchie III · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDETCAR
Projected points22.424.6
Win probability47.5%52.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status24 updates61 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 147 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 4 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DET recent scoring form vs CAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 31.0; opponent allowed 27.7.

CAR recent scoring form vs DET prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.7; opponent allowed 31.7.