P5 V4 baseline

ATL at NO

Monday, October 5 · 7:15 PM CDT

ATL 18.9 — NO 23.9

NO edge · NO 60.9%

Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects NO edge.
Why PardonMe leans NO →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 145 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 8 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Tua Tagovailoa · ATL

Attempts
28.5 mean · 26.0 median · 21.0–40.0 80%
Completions
19.2 mean · 18.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
207 mean · 202 median · 129–291 80%
Passing TD
1.27 mean · 70% 1+
Interceptions
0.67 mean · 48% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Tyler Shough · NO

Attempts
30.9 mean · 30.0 median · 19.0–42.0 80%
Completions
20.8 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
230 mean · 236 median · 132–310 80%
Passing TD
1.20 mean · 68% 1+
Interceptions
0.64 mean · 46% 1+
Low uncertainty

Running back ranges

Bijan Robinson · ATL

Opportunities
15.4 mean · 16.0 median · 6.0–25.0 80%
Carries
11.5 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
44 mean · 43 median · 9–79 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 17 median · 0–42 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
High

Travis Etienne Jr. · NO

Opportunities
10.3 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
Carries
8.1 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
33 mean · 34 median · 10–57 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Alvin Kamara · NO

Opportunities
7.3 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–17.0 80%
Carries
5.3 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
28 mean · 26 median · 0–58 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 10 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
22% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 22 median · 0–54 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE

Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 21 median · 5–30 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
Medium

Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 27 median · 14–68 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Drake London · ATL · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 40 median · 0–94 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 27 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Noah Fant · NO · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Juwan Johnson · NO · TE

Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 24 median · 0–73 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Chris Olave · NO · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 53 median · 0–92 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Devaughn Vele · NO · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 36 median · 12–72 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ATL 18.9 — NO 23.9

NO · 60.9% win probability

Margin
NO 4.9
Total
42.8

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ATLWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Inactive for Week 2

QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2

QB official #3 — Cooper Rush · Availability unknown

QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Brian Robinson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Drake London · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad

NOWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tyler Shough · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Spencer Rattler · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Zach Wilson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Travis Etienne Jr. · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Alvin Kamara · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kendre Miller · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — CJ Donaldson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Juwan Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Fant · Limited

TE official #3 — Oscar Delp · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #4 — Treyton Welch · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Chris Olave · Current status: Returned To Practice

WR official #2 — Barion Brown · Limited

WR official #1 — Devaughn Vele · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Barion Brown · Limited

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonATLNO
Projected points18.923.9
Win probability39.1%60.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status43 updates57 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 145 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 8 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

ATL recent scoring form vs NO prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 27.7.

NO recent scoring form vs ATL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 22.7.