Trevor Lawrence · JAX
- Attempts
- 32.9 mean · 32.0 median · 25.0–41.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.5 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 252 mean · 264 median · 176–351 80%
- Passing TD
- 2.03 mean · 86% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 49% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
PHI at JAX
Sunday, October 11 · 8:30 AM CDT
PHI 19.0 — JAX 25.0
JAX edge · JAX 62.8%
Projected total 43.9 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
JAX edge.
Why PardonMe leans JAX →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 143 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Jalen Hurts · PHI
- Attempts
- 30.0 mean · 29.0 median · 21.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 18.8 mean · 18.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 200 mean · 199 median · 109–284 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.54 mean · 77% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 49% 1+
Running back ranges
Ameer Abdullah · JAX
- Opportunities
- 5.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 23 mean · 21 median · 0–53 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 14 median · 0–37 80%
- Total TD
- 22% 1+
Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX
- Opportunities
- 8.8 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.2 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 34 median · 16–68 80%
- Receptions
- 0.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 4 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Saquon Barkley · PHI
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighReceiver and tight end ranges
Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 10 median · 0–31 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Brenton Strange · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 28 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 49 mean · 48 median · 13–84 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 42 median · 14–70 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
CJ Williams · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 44 median · 23–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 8 median · 0–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 10% 1+
Darius Cooper · PHI · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 22 median · 0–56 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighDontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR
- Targets
- 6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 52 mean · 54 median · 27–81 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
12 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
PHI 19.0 — JAX 25.0
JAX · 62.8% win probability
- Margin
- JAX 6.0
- Total
- 43.9
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
PHIWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Jalen Hurts · Full
QB official #3 — Cole Payton · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Tanner McKee · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Saquon Barkley · Out
RB official #2 — Tank Bigsby · Full
RB official #3 — Will Shipley · Did not participate
TE official #1 — Dallas Goedert · Full
TE official #2 — Johnny Mundt · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — E.J. Jenkins · Full
WR official #1 — DeVonta Smith · Out
WR official #2 — Hollywood Brown · Did not participate
WR official #1 — Dontayvion Wicks · Limited
WR official #2 — Darius Cooper · Full
WR official #1 — Makai Lemon · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Elijah Moore · Availability unknown
WR official #3 — Britain Covey · Current status: Transaction Effective
JAXWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Trevor Lawrence · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Quinn Ewers · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Bhayshul Tuten · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — LeQuint Allen Jr. · Full
RB official #3 — Ameer Abdullah · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Brenton Strange · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Nate Boerkircher · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Quintin Morris · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Tanner Koziol · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jakobi Meyers · Full
WR official #2 — CJ Williams · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Brian Thomas Jr. · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Travis Hunter · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Parker Washington · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Josh Cameron · Availability unknown
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.025.0
Win probability37.2%62.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status70 updates23 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 143 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
PHI recent scoring form vs JAX prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 14.3.
JAX recent scoring form vs PHI prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 23.7.
Players
PHI
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBJalen HurtsFullUnknownFull16.8QBCole PaytonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBTanner McKeeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBSaquon BarkleyOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableRBTank BigsbyFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableRBWill ShipleyDid not participateUnknownDid not participateProjection unavailableTEDallas GoedertFullUnknownFull9.3TEJohnny MundtNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.0TEE.J. JenkinsFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRDeVonta SmithOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRHollywood BrownDid not participateUnknownDid not participateProjection unavailableWRDontayvion WicksLimitedUnknownLimited9.6WRDarius CooperFullUnknownFull4.7WRMakai LemonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRElijah MooreNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRBritain CoveyCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableJAX
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBTrevor LawrenceNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update18.5QBQuinn EwersNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBBhayshul TutenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBChris Rodriguez Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.8RBLeQuint Allen Jr.FullUnknownFullProjection unavailableRBAmeer AbdullahNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.2TEBrenton StrangeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.0TENate BoerkircherNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.0TEQuintin MorrisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTETanner KoziolNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJakobi MeyersFullUnknownFull11.1WRCJ WilliamsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.3WRBrian Thomas Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.2WRTravis HunterNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRParker WashingtonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJosh CameronNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Trevor LawrenceJAX · #3 · floor 10.4 · upside 28.5JAXQB#318.310.428.5Jalen HurtsPHI · #9 · floor 7.6 · upside 24.3PHIQB#914.67.624.3Ameer AbdullahJAX · #36 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.2JAXRB#365.40.017.2Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · #41 · floor 1.8 · upside 14.3JAXRB#415.51.814.3Saquon BarkleyPHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —PHIRB————Dontayvion WicksPHI · #21 · floor 4.7 · upside 19.7PHIWR#219.54.719.7Jakobi MeyersJAX · #22 · floor 2.3 · upside 19.6JAXWR#2210.92.319.6CJ WilliamsJAX · #41 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1JAXWR#416.82.318.1Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · #47 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.6JAXWR#477.22.415.6Darius CooperPHI · #60 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.5PHIWR#604.20.014.5DeVonta SmithPHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —PHIWR————Dallas GoedertPHI · #8 · floor 4.3 · upside 18.6PHITE#89.44.318.6Brenton StrangeJAX · #19 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.2JAXTE#197.00.015.2Nate BoerkircherJAX · #47 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.1JAXTE#472.00.08.1Johnny MundtPHI · #52 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.9PHITE#521.80.06.9PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 18.5 · 80% 7.9–29.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 25% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 10.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.8 · 80% 0.0–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ameer Abdullah JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 2% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 8.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–14.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 82% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 5.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.1 · 80% 3.4–18.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.2 · 80% 0.5–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
CJ Williams JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brenton Strange JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 87% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.0 · 80% 0.7–13.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nate Boerkircher JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 34% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.0 · 80% 0.0–10.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Hurts PHI · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 30.1 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.8 · 80% 6.1–27.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Saquon Barkley PHI · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 7% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
DeVonta Smith PHI · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Dontayvion Wicks PHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.9–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Darius Cooper PHI · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 90% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 3.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.7 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dallas Goedert PHI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 3.1–15.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Johnny Mundt PHI · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 80% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.0 · 80% 0.0–10.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
JAX offensive TD state2.5 expected8.2% zero · 45.5% 3+
PHI offensive TD state2.4 expected9.1% zero · 42.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueEverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.0 mean · 2.0–8.0 80%Net yards 18 mean · 0–51 80%Rush TD 6% 1+
Attempts 5.3 mean · 3.0–7.0 80%Net yards 25 mean · 5–46 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
JAX
89 current depth players
73 with prior usage context
23 prior high-snap players
PHI
77 current depth players
70 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 852f7ebda4b6fa36a1671d4bfcd6c2d9c1d5133ac8c7d33268ae1eb198656b13
Prediction bd11d19253ff01cbb677eece3d088ef537c360ed1178412fec364e89b41c23e2
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence