P5 V4 baseline

HOU at TEN

Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT

HOU 20.3 — TEN 21.3

Nearly even · TEN 49.1%

Projected total 41.6 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans TEN →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 135 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

C.J. Stroud · HOU

Attempts
31.6 mean · 30.0 median · 22.0–43.0 80%
Completions
20.6 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
232 mean · 236 median · 157–337 80%
Passing TD
1.41 mean · 74% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Cam Ward · TEN

Attempts
30.3 mean · 30.0 median · 20.0–39.0 80%
Completions
19.4 mean · 19.0 median · 13.0–26.0 80%
Passing yards
199 mean · 194 median · 117–278 80%
Passing TD
1.36 mean · 73% 1+
Interceptions
0.64 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Woody Marks · HOU

Opportunities
11.2 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Carries
9.5 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
39 mean · 37 median · 11–69 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
Medium

David Montgomery · HOU

Opportunities
15.0 mean · 13.0 median · 10.0–25.0 80%
Carries
12.6 mean · 11.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 44 median · 29–83 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 15 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Michael Carter · TEN

Opportunities
13.8 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–23.0 80%
Carries
10.0 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 33 median · 17–63 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 7–44 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
High

Tony Pollard · TEN

Opportunities
15.3 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
Carries
13.4 mean · 14.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
55 mean · 53 median · 26–85 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Foster Moreau · HOU · TE

Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 29 median · 9–50 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE

Targets
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 39 median · 11–78 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Nico Collins · HOU · WR

Targets
8.0 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
78 mean · 79 median · 33–125 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 42 median · 14–81 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Jared Wayne · HOU · WR

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 24 median · 0–64 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 12 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE

Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 16 median · 7–40 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 16 median · 0–82 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR

Targets
6.4 mean · 7.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 39 median · 0–78 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Carnell Tate · TEN · WR

Targets
7.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
63 mean · 56 median · 19–106 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

HOU 20.3 — TEN 21.3

TEN · 49.1% win probability

Margin
TEN 0.9
Total
41.6

As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

HOUWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — C.J. Stroud · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Davis Mills · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — David Montgomery · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Woody Marks · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dare Ogunbowale · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Schultz · Limited

TE official #2 — Foster Moreau · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Marlin Klein · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cade Stover · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Brevin Jordan · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Hutchinson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Nico Collins · Limited

WR official #1 — Kayshon Boutte · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jaylin Noel · Reserve status: Active Nfi

TENWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Cam Ward · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mitchell Trubisky · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Tony Pollard · Full

RB official #2 — Tyjae Spears · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Nicholas Singleton · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Michael Carter · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — Julius Chestnut · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Gunnar Helm · Full

TE official #2 — Daniel Bellinger · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Kylen Granson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — David Martin-Robinson · Questionable

WR official #1 — Calvin Ridley · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Chimere Dike · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Carnell Tate · Questionable

WR official #2 — Elic Ayomanor · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Wan'Dale Robinson · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonHOUTEN
Projected points20.321.3
Win probability50.9%49.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status49 updates43 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 135 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

TEN recent scoring form vs HOU prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.0; opponent allowed 24.3.

HOU recent scoring form vs TEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 20.0.