Joe Burrow · CIN
- Attempts
- 32.6 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–42.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.1 mean · 22.0 median · 15.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 240 mean · 234 median · 153–318 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.61 mean · 78% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.70 mean · 49% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
CIN at MIA
Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT
CIN 21.8 — MIA 20.0
CIN slight edge · CIN 59.4%
Projected total 41.8 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
CIN slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans CIN →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 127 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Malik Willis · MIA
- Attempts
- 27.8 mean · 28.0 median · 15.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 17.4 mean · 17.0 median · 9.0–26.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 208 mean · 207 median · 124–296 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.01 mean · 61% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.60 mean · 45% 1+
Running back ranges
Chase Brown · CIN
- Opportunities
- 17.6 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.5 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 48 median · 20–75 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 19 median · 6–40 80%
- Total TD
- 39% 1+
Samaje Perine · CIN
- Opportunities
- 6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
- Carries
- 4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 30 mean · 24 median · 11–57 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 7 median · 0–24 80%
- Total TD
- 23% 1+
Ollie Gordon II · MIA
- Opportunities
- 12.6 mean · 11.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.7 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 45 mean · 38 median · 23–77 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 36% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 37 median · 13–72 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Drew Sample · CIN · TE
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 14 median · 0–23 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR
- Targets
- 6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 64 mean · 63 median · 14–110 80%
- Receiving TD
- 34% 1+
Tee Higgins · CIN · WR
- Targets
- 7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 74 mean · 64 median · 18–124 80%
- Receiving TD
- 42% 1+
Colbie Young · CIN · WR
- Targets
- 1.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 0 median · 0–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 23 median · 0–48 80%
- Receiving TD
- 12% 1+
Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 9 median · 0–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Chris Bell · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 29 median · 14–73 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Insufficient EvidenceJalen Tolbert · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 33 median · 10–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CIN 21.8 — MIA 20.0
CIN · 59.4% win probability
- Margin
- CIN 1.7
- Total
- 41.8
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CINWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
HB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
HB official #1 — Chase Brown · Availability unknown
HB official #2 — Samaje Perine · Availability unknown
HB official #3 — Tahj Brooks · Availability unknown
QB official #1 — Joe Burrow · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Joe Flacco · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Drew Sample · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Mike Gesicki · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Jack Endries · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Tanner Hudson · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Erick All Jr. · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Ja'Marr Chase · Questionable
WR official #1 — Dohnte Meyers · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Tee Higgins · Questionable
WR official #2 — Colbie Young · Questionable
MIAWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Malik Willis · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Kyle McCord · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Jaylen Wright · Questionable
RB official #2 — Ollie Gordon II · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Greg Dulcich · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Will Kacmarek · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Seydou Traore · Full
TE official #4 — Justin Joly · Out
WR official #1 — Malik Washington · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kevin Coleman Jr. · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Chris Bell · Full
WR official #2 — Jalen Tolbert · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Caleb Douglas · Out
WR official #2 — Ryan Miller · Availability unknown
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.820.0
Win probability59.4%40.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status37 updates35 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 127 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
MIA recent scoring form vs CIN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 11.0; opponent allowed 19.3.
CIN recent scoring form vs MIA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 21.3; opponent allowed 24.7.
Players
CIN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
RBChase BrownNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update12.2RBSamaje PerineNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.7RBTahj BrooksNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBJoe BurrowNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update17.1QBJoe FlaccoNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEDrew SampleNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.7TEMike GesickiNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.0TEJack EndriesNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTETanner HudsonCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTEErick All Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJa'Marr ChaseQuestionableUnknownQuestionable14.6WRDohnte MeyersNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRTee HigginsQuestionableUnknownQuestionable12.4WRColbie YoungQuestionableUnknownQuestionable4.4MIA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBMalik WillisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update16.4QBKyle McCordNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBJaylen WrightQuestionableUnknownQuestionableProjection unavailableRBOllie Gordon IINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.2TEGreg DulcichNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.1TEWill KacmarekNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update3.3TESeydou TraoreFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableTEJustin JolyOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRMalik WashingtonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRKevin Coleman Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRChris BellFullUnknownFull7.2WRJalen TolbertNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.0WRCaleb DouglasOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRRyan MillerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Joe BurrowCIN · #8 · floor 7.7 · upside 24.8CINQB#814.97.724.8Malik WillisMIA · #12 · floor 7.5 · upside 23.4MIAQB#1214.57.523.4Chase BrownCIN · #10 · floor 5.0 · upside 22.0CINRB#1012.75.022.0Ollie Gordon IIMIA · #22 · floor 3.6 · upside 18.3MIARB#228.33.618.3Samaje PerineCIN · #38 · floor 1.9 · upside 14.6CINRB#385.41.914.6Tee HigginsCIN · #8 · floor 5.3 · upside 27.9CINWR#813.95.327.9Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · #12 · floor 2.5 · upside 25.4CINWR#1213.52.525.4Chris BellMIA · #52 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.8MIAWR#524.92.415.8Jalen TolbertMIA · #53 · floor 2.1 · upside 15.0MIAWR#536.32.115.0Colbie YoungCIN · #74 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.5CINWR#740.00.012.5Caleb DouglasMIA · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —MIAWR————Mike GesickiCIN · #11 · floor 4.4 · upside 17.0CINTE#118.84.417.0Greg DulcichMIA · #28 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.0MIATE#284.30.011.0Will KacmarekMIA · #46 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.9MIATE#461.90.08.9Drew SampleCIN · #49 · floor 0.0 · upside 7.7CINTE#492.40.07.7PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Joe Burrow CIN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.2 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.1 · 80% 6.5–27.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chase Brown CIN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 79% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 15.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 12.2 · 80% 4.3–20.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Samaje Perine CIN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 36% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 6.7 · 80% 0.0–14.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ja'Marr Chase CIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 20% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 14.6 · 80% 6.9–22.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tee Higgins CIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 79% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.4 · 80% 4.7–20.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Colbie Young CIN · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 2.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.4 · 80% 0.0–12.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drew Sample CIN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 26% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.7 · 80% 0.0–11.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Gesicki CIN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.0 · 80% 1.8–14.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malik Willis MIA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 27.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.4 · 80% 5.7–27.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ollie Gordon II MIA · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Bell MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 82% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 4.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.2 · 80% 0.0–14.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Caleb Douglas MIA · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Jalen Tolbert MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 15% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Greg Dulcich MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 51% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.1 · 80% 0.0–11.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Will Kacmarek MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.3 · 80% 0.0–9.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CIN offensive TD state2.7 expected6.8% zero · 50.5% 3+
MIA offensive TD state2.6 expected7.5% zero · 48.0% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.5 mean · 1.0–5.0 80%Net yards 8 mean · -1–20 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 5.2 mean · 1.0–9.0 80%Net yards 36 mean · 3–73 80%Rush TD 5% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
MIA
88 current depth players
67 with prior usage context
25 prior high-snap players
CIN
72 current depth players
60 with prior usage context
20 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature b3c89d99a962946e66bcc3dd7772403eeb28a8016efefbfe1d47ff36471b61ed
Prediction 6b2e279d7272f61ccad8e49b11541b82e73680cf7d13676ab98683c33c50731f
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence