Kirk Cousins · LV
- Attempts
- 30.1 mean · 29.0 median · 18.0–41.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.1 mean · 19.0 median · 11.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 209 mean · 202 median · 107–343 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.68 mean · 79% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.66 mean · 47% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
LV at NE
Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT
LV 22.4 — NE 22.7
Nearly even · NE 45.9%
Projected total 45.1 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans NE →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 151 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Drake Maye · NE
- Attempts
- 23.8 mean · 23.0 median · 14.0–38.0 80%
- Completions
- 15.6 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 178 mean · 155 median · 113–279 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.17 mean · 66% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.58 mean · 44% 1+
Running back ranges
Ashton Jeanty · LV
- Opportunities
- 18.6 mean · 20.0 median · 10.0–27.0 80%
- Carries
- 14.2 mean · 15.0 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 49 mean · 48 median · 20–78 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 22 median · 6–48 80%
- Total TD
- 38% 1+
Mike Washington Jr. · LV
- Opportunities
- 7.7 mean · 7.0 median · 0.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.3 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 32 mean · 28 median · 0–67 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 7 median · 0–27 80%
- Total TD
- 24% 1+
TreVeyon Henderson · NE
- Opportunities
- 11.9 mean · 12.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.2 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 50 mean · 47 median · 15–84 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 36% 1+
Rhamondre Stevenson · NE
- Opportunities
- 12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.7 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 41 median · 19–84 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–37 80%
- Total TD
- 36% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Brock Bowers · LV · TE
- Targets
- 7.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 61 mean · 57 median · 25–109 80%
- Receiving TD
- 36% 1+
Michael Mayer · LV · TE
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 28 median · 9–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Jalen Nailor · LV · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighTre Tucker · LV · WR
- Targets
- 5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 38 median · 13–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Hunter Henry · NE · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 26 median · 13–61 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Eli Raridon · NE · TE
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 10 median · 0–43 80%
- Receiving TD
- 12% 1+
Romeo Doubs · NE · WR
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 29 median · 15–72 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
DeMario Douglas · NE · WR
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 40 median · 13–68 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Mack Hollins · NE · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
High13 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
LV 22.4 — NE 22.7
NE · 45.9% win probability
- Margin
- NE 0.3
- Total
- 45.1
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
LVWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Kirk Cousins · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Aidan O'Connell · Did not participate
RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Questionable
RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Full
TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Dareke Young · Full
WR official #3 — Cody White · Full
WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Out
WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full
NEWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Drake Maye · Full
QB official #2 — Tommy DeVito · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Behren Morton · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Rhamondre Stevenson · Questionable
RB official #2 — TreVeyon Henderson · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Corey Kiner · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Hunter Henry · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Eli Raridon · Limited
TE official #3 — Tanner Arkin · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Cameron Latu · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — DeMario Douglas · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Mack Hollins · Out
WR official #2 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Romeo Doubs · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Mack Hollins · Out
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points22.422.7
Win probability54.1%45.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status76 updates74 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 151 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
LV recent scoring form vs NE prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 21.3.
NE recent scoring form vs LV prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 18.3; opponent allowed 23.7.
Players
LV
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBKirk CousinsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update18.1QBFernando MendozaNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBAidan O'ConnellDid not participateUnknownDid not participateProjection unavailableRBAshton JeantyQuestionableUnknownQuestionable14.3RBMike Washington Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.5RBDylan LaubeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEBrock BowersFullUnknownFull13.7TEMichael MayerCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective8.0TEIan ThomasCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRTre TuckerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update10.6WRDareke YoungFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRCody WhiteFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRJalen NailorOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRMalik BensonFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableNE
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBDrake MayeFullUnknownFull14.4QBTommy DeVitoNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBBehren MortonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBRhamondre StevensonQuestionableUnknownQuestionable9.7RBTreVeyon HendersonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.1RBCorey KinerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEHunter HenryNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.4TEEli RaridonLimitedUnknownLimited4.5TETanner ArkinNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECameron LatuNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRDeMario DouglasNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.0WRKyle WilliamsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRMack HollinsOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWREfton Chism IIINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRRomeo DoubsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.4Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Drake MayeNE · #15 · floor 7.2 · upside 22.4NEQB#1513.37.222.4Kirk CousinsLV · #18 · floor 5.6 · upside 23.4LVQB#1813.05.623.4Ashton JeantyLV · #8 · floor 4.7 · upside 23.9LVRB#812.74.723.9Rhamondre StevensonNE · #16 · floor 4.1 · upside 21.4NERB#1610.34.121.4TreVeyon HendersonNE · #20 · floor 2.4 · upside 18.8NERB#209.02.418.8Mike Washington Jr.LV · #40 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.4LVRB#405.60.016.4Tre TuckerLV · #38 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.8LVWR#387.82.415.8Romeo DoubsNE · #40 · floor 2.5 · upside 16.9NEWR#407.42.516.9DeMario DouglasNE · #50 · floor 2.3 · upside 14.4NEWR#507.02.314.4Jalen NailorLV · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —LVWR————Mack HollinsNE · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —NEWR————Brock BowersLV · #2 · floor 4.6 · upside 26.9LVTE#212.84.626.9Michael MayerLV · #17 · floor 1.9 · upside 15.8LVTE#175.91.915.8Hunter HenryNE · #20 · floor 2.3 · upside 14.9NETE#206.72.314.9Eli RaridonNE · #40 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.2NETE#402.00.010.2PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Kirk Cousins LV · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 30.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 18.1 · 80% 7.4–28.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ashton Jeanty LV · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 67% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 17.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 14.3 · 80% 6.4–22.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Washington Jr. LV · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 21% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 9.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.5 · 80% 0.0–15.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Nailor LV · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Tre Tucker LV · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 67% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.6 · 80% 3.0–18.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Bowers LV · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 82% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 13.7 · 80% 7.5–20.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Michael Mayer LV · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 4.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.0 · 80% 1.8–14.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drake Maye NE · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 24.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 14.4 · 80% 3.7–25.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rhamondre Stevenson NE · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 66% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.7 · 80% 1.9–17.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
TreVeyon Henderson NE · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 37% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.2–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Romeo Doubs NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.4 · 80% 0.7–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DeMario Douglas NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.0 · 80% 0.3–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mack Hollins NE · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 41% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Hunter Henry NE · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.4 · 80% 0.2–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eli Raridon NE · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 2.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.5 · 80% 0.0–10.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
LV offensive TD state1.9 expected15.0% zero · 29.5% 3+
NE offensive TD state2.9 expected5.7% zero · 54.7% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.6 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards -1 mean · -6–3 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 5.6 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 33 mean · 17–54 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
NE
103 current depth players
81 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
LV
87 current depth players
70 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 64f5e3178523588b185da132fbbb4804454f70b21c354b4e93ca37db60f8ae23
Prediction bc5a1434c864a1e804b8515131413b2ce11fe05f0c9ce4ff19e3968e2768b76c
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence