P5 V4 baseline

MIN at NO

Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT

MIN 20.3 — NO 22.5

NO slight edge · NO 53.1%

Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects NO slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans NO →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 143 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 26 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Kyler Murray · MIN

Attempts
27.1 mean · 26.0 median · 19.0–36.0 80%
Completions
17.0 mean · 17.0 median · 11.0–24.0 80%
Passing yards
174 mean · 169 median · 123–239 80%
Passing TD
1.18 mean · 68% 1+
Interceptions
0.58 mean · 44% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Tyler Shough · NO

Attempts
33.3 mean · 33.0 median · 19.0–48.0 80%
Completions
22.0 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–32.0 80%
Passing yards
239 mean · 243 median · 131–317 80%
Passing TD
1.48 mean · 75% 1+
Interceptions
0.72 mean · 52% 1+
Low uncertainty

Running back ranges

Demond Claiborne · MIN

Opportunities
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–14.0 80%
Carries
4.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
25 mean · 21 median · 0–59 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 0 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN

Opportunities
19.4 mean · 18.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
Carries
15.7 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–22.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 53 median · 28–88 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 5–36 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Alvin Kamara · NO

Opportunities
9.2 mean · 9.0 median · 1.0–19.0 80%
Carries
7.3 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 26 median · 3–57 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
High

Kendre Miller · NO

Opportunities
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Carries
6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
32 mean · 28 median · 15–51 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 5 median · 0–18 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Gavin Bartholomew · MIN · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 17 median · 8–56 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 33 median · 13–59 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Jordan Addison · MIN · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 45 median · 18–86 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
66 mean · 64 median · 28–99 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 20 median · 0–43 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Noah Fant · NO · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 18 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Juwan Johnson · NO · TE

Targets
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 48 median · 24–86 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Kevin Austin Jr. · NO · WR

Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 36 median · 12–61 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Chris Olave · NO · WR

Targets
9.6 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
87 mean · 83 median · 30–136 80%
Receiving TD
42% 1+
High

Devaughn Vele · NO · WR

Targets
6.4 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 47 median · 13–83 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Medium

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

MIN 20.3 — NO 22.5

NO · 53.1% win probability

Margin
NO 2.2
Total
42.8

As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

MINWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kyler Murray · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Carson Wentz · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Max Brosmer · Waived

RB official #1 — Aaron Jones Sr. · Limited

RB official #2 — Demond Claiborne · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — DeeJay Dallas · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — T.J. Hockenson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Gavin Bartholomew · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Justin Jefferson · Questionable

WR official #2 — Tai Felton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jordan Addison · Questionable

WR official #1 — Jauan Jennings · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Myles Price · Availability unknown

NOWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tyler Shough · Full

QB official #2 — Spencer Rattler · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Zach Wilson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Alvin Kamara · Questionable

RB official #2 — Kendre Miller · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — CJ Donaldson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Juwan Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Fant · Full

TE official #3 — Oscar Delp · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #4 — Treyton Welch · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Chris Olave · Full

WR official #2 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #1 — Devaughn Vele · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kevin Austin Jr. · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonMINNO
Projected points20.322.5
Win probability46.9%53.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates57 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 143 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 26 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

MIN recent scoring form vs NO prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.7; opponent allowed 32.3.

NO recent scoring form vs MIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 9.7.