Deshaun Watson · CLE
- Attempts
- 26.5 mean · 26.0 median · 18.0–34.0 80%
- Completions
- 16.5 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–23.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 177 mean · 169 median · 104–250 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.17 mean · 67% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.55 mean · 42% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
CLE at NYJ
Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT
CLE 21.7 — NYJ 21.1
Nearly even · CLE 55.9%
Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans CLE →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 119 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Geno Smith · NYJ
- Attempts
- 31.2 mean · 30.0 median · 22.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.2 mean · 19.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 221 mean · 214 median · 127–334 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.49 mean · 75% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.67 mean · 48% 1+
Running back ranges
Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- Opportunities
- 14.4 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.0 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 37 mean · 35 median · 17–61 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 13 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Raheim Sanders · CLE
- Opportunities
- 7.1 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
- Carries
- 5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 32 mean · 24 median · 0–69 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
- Total TD
- 21% 1+
Braelon Allen · NYJ
- Opportunities
- 13.9 mean · 12.0 median · 9.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.9 mean · 9.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 34 mean · 28 median · 16–59 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 8 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 28% 1+
Breece Hall · NYJ
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighReceiver and tight end ranges
Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE
- Targets
- 6.6 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 45 mean · 45 median · 13–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Denzel Boston · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 71 mean · 74 median · 38–110 80%
- Receiving TD
- 33% 1+
Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 24 median · 0–61 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumJeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 14 median · 0–30 80%
- Receiving TD
- 12% 1+
Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 17 median · 0–43 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Malik McClain · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighGarrett Wilson · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 9.0 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 68 mean · 61 median · 27–106 80%
- Receiving TD
- 40% 1+
13 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CLE 21.7 — NYJ 21.1
CLE · 55.9% win probability
- Margin
- CLE 0.5
- Total
- 42.8
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CLEWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Official depth is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Deshaun Watson · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Shedeur Sanders · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Taylen Green · Inactive for Week 4
RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Raheim Sanders · Availability unknown
RB official #4 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Carsen Ryan · Out
WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Out
WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown
NYJWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Geno Smith · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Cade Klubnik · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — Breece Hall · Out
RB official #2 — Braelon Allen · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Isaiah Davis · Availability unknown
RB official #4 — Kene Nwangwu · Full
TE official #1 — Mason Taylor · Full
TE official #2 — Kenyon Sadiq · Limited
TE official #1 — Jeremy Ruckert · Limited
TE official #2 — Jelani Woods · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #1 — Adonai Mitchell · Out
WR official #2 — Isaiah Williams · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Garrett Wilson · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Malik McClain · Waived
WR official #3 — Jamaal Pritchett · Waived
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.721.1
Win probability55.9%44.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates73 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 119 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
NYJ recent scoring form vs CLE prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 20.3.
CLE recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 24.7.
Players
CLE
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBDeshaun WatsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update18.6QBShedeur SandersNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBTaylen GreenInactive for Week 4UnknownInactive for Week 4Projection unavailableRBQuinshon JudkinsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update10.3RBRaheim SandersNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.3RBJaleel McLaughlinCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTEHarold Fannin Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.5TEBlake WhiteheartCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective4.6TECarsen RyanOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRJerry JeudyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.6WRTylan WallaceOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRDenzel BostonCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective10.5WRMalachi CorleyCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRIsaiah BondNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableNYJ
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBGeno SmithNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update18.7QBCade KlubnikCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBBreece HallOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableRBBraelon AllenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.0RBIsaiah DavisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBKene NwangwuFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableTEMason TaylorFullUnknownFull6.1TEKenyon SadiqLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableTEJeremy RuckertLimitedUnknownLimited4.2TEJelani WoodsCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRAdonai MitchellOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRIsaiah WilliamsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRGarrett WilsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update16.2WRMalik McClainWaivedUnknownWaived9.1WRJamaal PritchettWaivedUnknownWaivedProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Geno SmithNYJ · #17 · floor 6.1 · upside 22.7NYJQB#1713.26.122.7Deshaun WatsonCLE · #22 · floor 6.8 · upside 21.1CLEQB#2212.66.821.1Quinshon JudkinsCLE · #25 · floor 3.1 · upside 17.0CLERB#258.33.117.0Braelon AllenNYJ · #29 · floor 3.0 · upside 16.0NYJRB#296.63.016.0Raheim SandersCLE · #37 · floor 1.2 · upside 15.9CLERB#375.31.215.9Breece HallNYJ · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —NYJRB————Garrett WilsonNYJ · #7 · floor 6.8 · upside 26.2NYJWR#715.06.826.2Denzel BostonCLE · #14 · floor 5.9 · upside 23.0CLEWR#1411.95.923.0Malik McClainNYJ · #48 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.3NYJWR#486.80.017.3Jerry JeudyCLE · #64 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.3CLEWR#644.40.013.3Tylan WallaceCLE · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CLEWR————Adonai MitchellNYJ · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —NYJWR————Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · #7 · floor 2.4 · upside 20.7CLETE#79.52.420.7Mason TaylorNYJ · #30 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.7NYJTE#303.70.011.7Jeremy RuckertNYJ · #42 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.8NYJTE#423.40.08.8Blake WhiteheartCLE · #45 · floor 0.0 · upside 7.8CLETE#452.80.07.8PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 26.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 18.6 · 80% 7.9–29.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Quinshon Judkins CLE · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 66% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.3 · 80% 2.4–18.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Raheim Sanders CLE · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 34% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.3 · 80% 0.0–15.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Denzel Boston CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 95% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.5 · 80% 2.8–18.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jerry Jeudy CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 38% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.6 · 80% 0.0–13.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tylan Wallace CLE · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Inactive for Week 4
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 3.2–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Blake Whiteheart CLE · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 34% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 2.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.6 · 80% 0.0–10.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Geno Smith NYJ · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 31.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 18.7 · 80% 8.0–29.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Breece Hall NYJ · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Braelon Allen NYJ · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 94% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.0 · 80% 0.1–15.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adonai Mitchell NYJ · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Garrett Wilson NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 16.2 · 80% 8.5–23.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malik McClain NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 3% offense
- Availability
- Waived
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.5–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jeremy Ruckert NYJ · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 44% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 2.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.2 · 80% 0.0–10.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mason Taylor NYJ · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CLE offensive TD state2.4 expected9.3% zero · 42.3% 3+
NYJ offensive TD state1.9 expected14.3% zero · 30.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 6.2 mean · 3.0–11.0 80%Net yards 27 mean · 14–45 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 2.1 mean · 0.0–6.0 80%Net yards 4 mean · -6–17 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
NYJ
88 current depth players
66 with prior usage context
21 prior high-snap players
CLE
67 current depth players
53 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature eae9a2e0aab95fbe26b08ee19fd9405ba096a4b1d5cd986277f59da0c80e0c54
Prediction 9ab3c5091b8a322a111766e57ede9ea3e38413767adac81e8e921641cc89f109
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence