P5 V4 baseline

IND at PIT

Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT

IND 22.3 — PIT 22.2

Nearly even · IND 54.8%

Projected total 44.5 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans IND →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Daniel Jones · IND

Attempts
26.6 mean · 25.0 median · 19.0–38.0 80%
Completions
17.3 mean · 17.0 median · 11.0–25.0 80%
Passing yards
180 mean · 169 median · 117–285 80%
Passing TD
1.04 mean · 63% 1+
Interceptions
0.61 mean · 45% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Aaron Rodgers · PIT

Attempts
31.2 mean · 33.0 median · 21.0–40.0 80%
Completions
19.8 mean · 20.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
Passing yards
209 mean · 201 median · 139–271 80%
Passing TD
1.25 mean · 70% 1+
Interceptions
0.64 mean · 46% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Carries
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
24 mean · 19 median · 0–57 80%
Receptions
0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
17% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
21.5 mean · 22.0 median · 11.0–29.0 80%
Carries
18.3 mean · 19.0 median · 9.0–25.0 80%
Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
70 mean · 70 median · 32–106 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–34 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Eli Heidenreich · PIT

Opportunities
4.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Carries
3.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
22 mean · 17 median · 0–55 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
17% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jaylen Warren · PIT

Opportunities
18.8 mean · 19.0 median · 14.0–25.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 10.0–20.0 80%
Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 56 median · 32–89 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 17 median · 6–38 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 19 median · 9–38 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 35 median · 18–58 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 50 median · 26–84 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Laquon Treadwell · IND · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 23 median · 0–58 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 30 median · 11–58 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE

Targets
5.4 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 42 median · 21–63 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Darnell Washington · PIT · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 25 median · 11–50 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

DK Metcalf · PIT · WR

Targets
6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 39 median · 14–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 20 median · 0–70 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Roman Wilson · PIT · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 41 median · 14–81 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
Medium

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

IND 22.3 — PIT 22.2

IND · 54.8% win probability

Margin
IND 0.2
Total
44.5

As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

INDWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Anthony Richardson Sr. · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Riley Leonard · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Full

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Did not participate

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Darius Slayton · Out

WR official #1 — Josh Downs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Anthony Gould · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Keenan Allen · Questionable

WR official #2 — Ashton Dulin · Out

WR official #3 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

PITWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Aaron Rodgers · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Mason Rudolph · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Will Howard · Inactive for Week 4

QB official #4 — Drew Allar · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Jaylen Warren · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Rico Dowdle · Questionable

RB official #3 — Eli Heidenreich · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #4 — Travis Homer · Released

TE official #1 — Pat Freiermuth · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Darnell Washington · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #2 — Robert Tonyan · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Roman Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kaden Wetjen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DK Metcalf · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ben Skowronek · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Michael Pittman Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Germie Bernard · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonINDPIT
Projected points22.322.2
Win probability54.8%45.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status30 updates74 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PIT recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 21.0.

IND recent scoring form vs PIT prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 26.3; opponent allowed 24.7.