P5 V4 baseline

NYG at WAS

Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT

NYG 20.3 — WAS 22.5

WAS slight edge · WAS 52.6%

Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects WAS slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans WAS →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 159 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jameis Winston · NYG

Attempts
25.8 mean · 23.0 median · 15.0–38.0 80%
Completions
15.5 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
Passing yards
181 mean · 170 median · 78–292 80%
Passing TD
1.11 mean · 64% 1+
Interceptions
0.64 mean · 46% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

Attempts
33.9 mean · 31.0 median · 24.0–47.0 80%
Completions
21.9 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
230 mean · 227 median · 127–331 80%
Passing TD
1.58 mean · 78% 1+
Interceptions
0.72 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Devin Singletary · NYG

Opportunities
11.6 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Carries
9.5 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
43 mean · 39 median · 24–67 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
High

Cam Skattebo · NYG

Opportunities
17.7 mean · 18.0 median · 7.0–24.0 80%
Carries
14.3 mean · 15.0 median · 6.0–21.0 80%
Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 56 median · 19–82 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 17 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
42% 1+
Medium

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Opportunities
14.1 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
Carries
12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 47 median · 27–80 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 7 median · 0–19 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
9.7 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Carries
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
36 mean · 33 median · 16–60 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 13 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Theo Johnson · NYG · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 12 median · 0–51 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Isaiah Likely · NYG · TE

Targets
6.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 47 median · 26–90 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Malachi Fields · NYG · WR

Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 27 median · 0–69 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Darnell Mooney · NYG · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 26 median · 0–53 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Malik Nabers · NYG · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 54 median · 14–107 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 18 median · 8–37 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 11 median · 0–40 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Treylon Burks · WAS · WR

Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 21 median · 0–48 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 46 median · 17–91 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NYG 20.3 — WAS 22.5

WAS · 52.6% win probability

Margin
WAS 2.2
Total
42.8

As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NYGWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jameis Winston · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — J.J. McCarthy · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Cam Skattebo · Full

RB official #2 — Najee Harris · Full

RB official #2 — Devin Singletary · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Isaiah Likely · Full

TE official #2 — Theo Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Chris Manhertz · Full

TE official #4 — Thomas Fidone II · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Darnell Mooney · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Braxton Berrios · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Charlie Jones · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Malik Nabers · Full

WR official #2 — Malachi Fields · Availability unknown

WASWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jayden Daniels · Full

QB official #2 — Marcus Mariota · Out

QB official #3 — Athan Kaliakmanis · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Full

RB official #2 — Rachaad White · Limited

RB official #3 — Player 3694 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — John Bates · Current status: Camp Absence Reported Without Official Participation Level

TE official #2 — Colson Yankoff · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Chig Okonkwo · Full

TE official #2 — Ben Sinnott · Full

WR official #1 — Dyami Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Antonio Williams · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Luke McCaffrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Terry McLaurin · Questionable

WR official #2 — Treylon Burks · Full

WR official #1 — Stefon Diggs · Out

WR official #2 — Jaylin Lane · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNYGWAS
Projected points20.322.5
Win probability47.4%52.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status59 updates60 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 159 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NYG recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 32.7.

WAS recent scoring form vs NYG prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.0; opponent allowed 19.7.