Bo Nix · DEN
- Attempts
- 29.3 mean · 30.0 median · 19.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.2 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 199 mean · 195 median · 114–298 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.23 mean · 69% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.63 mean · 46% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
DEN at LAC
Sunday, October 11 · 3:05 PM CDT
DEN 21.6 — LAC 21.6
Nearly even · DEN 53.8%
Projected total 43.2 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans DEN →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 114 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Justin Herbert · LAC
- Attempts
- 27.5 mean · 26.0 median · 22.0–35.0 80%
- Completions
- 17.2 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–23.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 195 mean · 185 median · 120–266 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.15 mean · 67% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.66 mean · 48% 1+
Running back ranges
J.K. Dobbins · DEN
- Opportunities
- 11.8 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.9 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 49 mean · 48 median · 21–77 80%
- Receptions
- 0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 5 mean · 0 median · 0–14 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
RJ Harvey · DEN
- Opportunities
- 8.9 mean · 9.0 median · 1.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 27 mean · 26 median · 0–52 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 15 median · 0–41 80%
- Total TD
- 28% 1+
Omarion Hampton · LAC
- Opportunities
- 14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.4 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 55 mean · 52 median · 28–88 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 14 median · 0–32 80%
- Total TD
- 39% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Evan Engram · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 20 median · 0–40 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Adam Trautman · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 18 median · 0–28 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Pat Bryant · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 37 median · 0–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 26 median · 0–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 51 mean · 55 median · 16–82 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Oronde Gadsden · LAC · TE
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 12 median · 0–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE
- Targets
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 11 median · 0–33 80%
- Receiving TD
- 9% 1+
Tre' Harris · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 52 mean · 54 median · 27–82 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighLadd McConkey · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 58 mean · 55 median · 27–96 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
DEN 21.6 — LAC 21.6
DEN · 53.8% win probability
- Margin
- DEN 0.0
- Total
- 43.2
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
DENWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Bo Nix · Current status: Transaction Effective
QB official #2 — Jarrett Stidham · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Sam Ehlinger · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — J.K. Dobbins · Full
RB official #2 — RJ Harvey · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Tyler Badie · Full
TE official #1 — Evan Engram · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Adam Trautman · Full
TE official #3 — Nate Adkins · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Dallen Bentley · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #1 — Marvin Mims Jr. · Full
WR official #2 — Troy Franklin · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jaylen Waddle · Full
WR official #1 — Courtland Sutton · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Pat Bryant · Availability unknown
LACWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Justin Herbert · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Trey Lance · Out
RB official #1 — Omarion Hampton · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Keaton Mitchell · Limited
RB official #3 — Kimani Vidal · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Charlie Kolar · Questionable
TE official #2 — Oronde Gadsden · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Hayden Rucci · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Ladd McConkey · Questionable
WR official #2 — Tre' Harris · Availability unknown
WR official #3 — Derius Davis · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Quentin Johnston · Out
WR official #2 — Brenen Thompson · Out
WR official #3 — Marquez Valdes-Scantling · Availability unknown
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.621.6
Win probability53.8%46.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status67 updates66 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 114 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
DEN recent scoring form vs LAC prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 21.3; opponent allowed 26.7.
LAC recent scoring form vs DEN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 21.0.
Players
DEN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBBo NixCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective16.8QBJarrett StidhamNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBSam EhlingerCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBJ.K. DobbinsFullUnknownFull8.2RBRJ HarveyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.2RBTyler BadieFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableTEEvan EngramNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.5TEAdam TrautmanFullUnknownFull4.7TENate AdkinsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEDallen BentleyCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRMarvin Mims Jr.FullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRTroy FranklinNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJaylen WaddleFullUnknownFull10.7WRCourtland SuttonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.1WRPat BryantNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.1LAC
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBJustin HerbertNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update15.8QBTrey LanceOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableRBOmarion HamptonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update11.2RBKeaton MitchellLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableRBKimani VidalCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTECharlie KolarQuestionableUnknownQuestionable2.8TEOronde GadsdenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.4TEHayden RucciNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRLadd McConkeyQuestionableUnknownQuestionable11.1WRTre' HarrisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update10.1WRDerius DavisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRQuentin JohnstonOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRBrenen ThompsonOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableWRMarquez Valdes-ScantlingNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Justin HerbertLAC · #16 · floor 7.0 · upside 21.9LACQB#1613.67.021.9Bo NixDEN · #19 · floor 5.8 · upside 22.0DENQB#1912.95.822.0Omarion HamptonLAC · #15 · floor 4.7 · upside 21.4LACRB#1511.34.721.4RJ HarveyDEN · #24 · floor 1.6 · upside 18.6DENRB#248.51.618.6J.K. DobbinsDEN · #32 · floor 2.6 · upside 14.7DENRB#327.12.614.7Ladd McConkeyLAC · #19 · floor 4.7 · upside 20.3LACWR#1911.84.720.3Jaylen WaddleDEN · #23 · floor 2.6 · upside 18.8DENWR#2310.52.618.8Tre' HarrisLAC · #27 · floor 4.7 · upside 17.7LACWR#279.44.717.7Courtland SuttonDEN · #54 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.5DENWR#546.70.015.5Pat BryantDEN · #57 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.0DENWR#576.70.015.0Quentin JohnstonLAC · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —LACWR————Evan EngramDEN · #34 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.1DENTE#344.00.010.1Oronde GadsdenLAC · #36 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.7LACTE#362.20.010.7Adam TrautmanDEN · #39 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.8DENTE#393.80.08.8Charlie KolarLAC · #48 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.0LACTE#482.10.08.0PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Bo Nix DEN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 29.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.8 · 80% 6.1–27.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 32% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.2 · 80% 0.3–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
RJ Harvey DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 44% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.4–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Courtland Sutton DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.1 · 80% 0.4–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Waddle DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 6.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.7 · 80% 3.0–18.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Pat Bryant DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 36% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.1 · 80% 0.5–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Evan Engram DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 67% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adam Trautman DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 45% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 2.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.7 · 80% 0.0–10.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justin Herbert LAC · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 28.0 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.8 · 80% 5.1–26.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Omarion Hampton LAC · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 35% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 15.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 11.2 · 80% 3.3–19.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Quentin Johnston LAC · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Ladd McConkey LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 34% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 6.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.1 · 80% 3.5–18.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tre' Harris LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 93% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.1 · 80% 2.4–17.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Kolar LAC · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 1.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 2.8 · 80% 0.0–9.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Oronde Gadsden LAC · TE
- Current role
- TE3
- Prior usage
- 55% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.4 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
DEN offensive TD state2.2 expected10.6% zero · 38.9% 3+
LAC offensive TD state2.0 expected13.3% zero · 32.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueSoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
Roof typeFixed Roof
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastNot ApplicableForecast lead time unknown
Indoor controlled environment; exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.3 mean · 2.0–9.0 80%Net yards 17 mean · 2–49 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 5.5 mean · 2.0–10.0 80%Net yards 29 mean · 0–66 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
LAC
82 current depth players
60 with prior usage context
21 prior high-snap players
DEN
59 current depth players
54 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 1bbf9a0aed8c91a05ea0b40c0bc338b6cb1a81cb2b8945280518c7258cff86cc
Prediction 679d2701702dee7375f7d063ab7715a5eebc89182fa5ec4715c6d52d30a0a151
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence