Caleb Williams · CHI
- Attempts
- 42.4 mean · 43.0 median · 35.0–52.0 80%
- Completions
- 27.0 mean · 27.0 median · 20.0–34.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 298 mean · 301 median · 195–412 80%
- Passing TD
- 2.01 mean · 86% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.89 mean · 58% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
CHI at GB
Sunday, October 11 · 12:00 PM CDT
CHI 20.7 — GB 21.2
Nearly even · GB 47.5%
Projected total 41.9 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans GB →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 140 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Jordan Love · GB
- Attempts
- 35.4 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–47.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.0 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 249 mean · 255 median · 137–360 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.86 mean · 82% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.78 mean · 54% 1+
Running back ranges
Kyle Monangai · CHI
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumD'Andre Swift · CHI
- Opportunities
- 17.3 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–23.0 80%
- Carries
- 14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 71 mean · 70 median · 40–103 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 15 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 46% 1+
Chris Brooks · GB
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumMarShawn Lloyd · GB
- Opportunities
- 10.9 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.6 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 31 mean · 26 median · 13–54 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 12 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Cole Kmet · CHI · TE
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 19 median · 0–41 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Colston Loveland · CHI · TE
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 22 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Luther Burden III · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 6.7 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 67 mean · 69 median · 30–108 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Rome Odunze · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 32 median · 16–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Jahdae Walker · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 37 median · 12–74 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
Tucker Kraft · GB · TE
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 39 median · 13–79 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Jonnu Smith · GB · TE
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 17 median · 7–34 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Matthew Golden · GB · WR
- Targets
- 8.2 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 58 mean · 55 median · 28–107 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
J. Michael Sturdivant · GB · WR
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Christian Watson · GB · WR
- Targets
- 8.3 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 83 mean · 80 median · 48–127 80%
- Receiving TD
- 51% 1+
14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CHI 20.7 — GB 21.2
GB · 47.5% win probability
- Margin
- GB 0.5
- Total
- 41.9
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CHIWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Questionable
QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Full
RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Out
RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Cole Kmet · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #3 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective
GBWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Jordan Love · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Tyrod Taylor · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — MarShawn Lloyd · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Kaleb Johnson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Tucker Kraft · Current status: Returned To Practice
TE official #2 — Jonnu Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Josh Whyle · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Skyy Moore · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Released
WR official #1 — Matthew Golden · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — J. Michael Sturdivant · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Christian Watson · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Released
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points20.721.2
Win probability52.5%47.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status77 updates54 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 140 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
GB recent scoring form vs CHI prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 9.3.
CHI recent scoring form vs GB prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 22.0.
Players
CHI
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBCaleb WilliamsQuestionableUnknownQuestionable24.6QBTyson BagentNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBCase KeenumCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBD'Andre SwiftFullUnknownFull14.2RBKyle MonangaiOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableRBRoschon JohnsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECole KmetNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.3TESam RoushCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTEColston LovelandNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.2WRLuther Burden IIINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update12.5WRJahdae WalkerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.6WRRome OdunzeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.8WRKalif RaymondCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRZavion ThomasCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableGB
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBJordan LoveNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update16.8QBTyrod TaylorCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBMarShawn LloydNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.8RBKaleb JohnsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTETucker KraftCurrent status: Returned To PracticeUnknownCurrent status: Returned To Practice7.7TEJonnu SmithCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective5.2TEJosh WhyleNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRSkyy MooreCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRBo MeltonReleasedUnknownReleasedProjection unavailableWRMatthew GoldenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update13.1WRJ. Michael SturdivantNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.4WRChristian WatsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update15.7Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Caleb WilliamsCHI · #2 · floor 11.7 · upside 30.8CHIQB#220.311.730.8Jordan LoveGB · #6 · floor 7.0 · upside 26.5GBQB#615.67.026.5D'Andre SwiftCHI · #5 · floor 6.5 · upside 23.4CHIRB#513.56.523.4MarShawn LloydGB · #30 · floor 2.4 · upside 16.0GBRB#306.62.416.0Kyle MonangaiCHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CHIRB————Chris BrooksGB · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —GBRB————Christian WatsonGB · #3 · floor 7.9 · upside 29.5GBWR#316.57.929.5Luther Burden IIICHI · #15 · floor 7.2 · upside 21.5CHIWR#1512.97.221.5Matthew GoldenGB · #18 · floor 4.8 · upside 22.5GBWR#1810.84.822.5Jahdae WalkerCHI · #32 · floor 3.3 · upside 17.6CHIWR#328.83.317.6Rome OdunzeCHI · #44 · floor 2.6 · upside 16.1CHIWR#447.62.616.1J. Michael SturdivantGB · #72 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.8GBWR#722.60.011.8Tucker KraftGB · #16 · floor 2.3 · upside 17.6GBTE#167.02.317.6Colston LovelandCHI · #22 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.7CHITE#224.20.014.7Jonnu SmithGB · #31 · floor 1.7 · upside 9.7GBTE#313.71.79.7Cole KmetCHI · #33 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.0CHITE#333.90.010.0PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Caleb Williams CHI · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 42.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 24.6 · 80% 13.9–35.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
D'Andre Swift CHI · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 35% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 18.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 14.2 · 80% 6.3–22.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyle Monangai CHI · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 54% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Luther Burden III CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.5 · 80% 4.8–20.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rome Odunze CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.8 · 80% 0.1–15.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahdae Walker CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 2% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cole Kmet CHI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.3 · 80% 0.0–10.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Colston Loveland CHI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.2 · 80% 0.0–11.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jordan Love GB · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 35.1 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.8 · 80% 6.1–27.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
MarShawn Lloyd GB · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 55% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.8 · 80% 0.0–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Brooks GB · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 17% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Matthew Golden GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 13.1 · 80% 5.4–20.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Christian Watson GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 15.7 · 80% 8.0–23.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
J. Michael Sturdivant GB · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 3% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.4 · 80% 0.0–13.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tucker Kraft GB · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Returned To Practice
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.7 · 80% 1.5–13.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jonnu Smith GB · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 22% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.2 · 80% 0.0–11.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CHI offensive TD state2.5 expected7.8% zero · 46.8% 3+
GB offensive TD state2.6 expected7.5% zero · 48.0% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.5 mean · 1.0–10.0 80%Net yards 25 mean · 1–65 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 2.1 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards 4 mean · -8–29 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
GB
75 current depth players
65 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
CHI
89 current depth players
75 with prior usage context
23 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 18a408926c5dbc2c9ebe3bd1c7217a47d837fb48ee01a4637e931ebc18fbbc3f
Prediction 447b1df8f8e9b296c57fe6ea182c358e56bb2bfe31ee66d4fdf4a060fe6d6c06
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence