P5 V4 baseline

DET at ARI

Sunday, October 11 · 3:25 PM CDT

DET 24.0 — ARI 22.4

DET slight edge · DET 58.8%

Projected total 46.4 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects DET slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans DET →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 152 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 48 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

Attempts
31.1 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–41.0 80%
Completions
20.0 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
198 mean · 199 median · 99–262 80%
Passing TD
1.45 mean · 75% 1+
Interceptions
0.69 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jared Goff · DET

Attempts
32.5 mean · 33.0 median · 21.0–48.0 80%
Completions
21.2 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
239 mean · 237 median · 141–339 80%
Passing TD
1.60 mean · 78% 1+
Interceptions
0.64 mean · 46% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
10.2 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
Carries
8.1 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
33 mean · 30 median · 13–59 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Opportunities
17.1 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–27.0 80%
Carries
14.2 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 52 median · 28–91 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 13 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jahmyr Gibbs · DET

Opportunities
27.4 mean · 27.0 median · 17.0–34.0 80%
Carries
20.0 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–26.0 80%
Targets
7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Rushing yards
74 mean · 69 median · 38–110 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 42 median · 17–74 80%
Total TD
59% 1+
High

Sione Vaki · DET

Opportunities
5.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Carries
4.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
25 mean · 19 median · 0–63 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 0 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–38 80%
Receiving TD
9% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
9.2 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
7.0 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
65 mean · 69 median · 23–96 80%
Receiving TD
37% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 35 median · 22–69 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Marvin Harrison Jr. · ARI · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 29 median · 0–75 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Michael Wilson · ARI · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 56 median · 0–120 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
High

Sam LaPorta · DET · TE

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 35 median · 12–69 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Brock Wright · DET · TE

Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–23 80%
Receiving TD
8% 1+
High

Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR

Targets
9.9 mean · 11.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
73 mean · 76 median · 3–123 80%
Receiving TD
41% 1+
High

Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 30 median · 0–78 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Jameson Williams · DET · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 46 median · 0–93 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DET 24.0 — ARI 22.4

DET · 58.8% win probability

Margin
DET 1.6
Total
46.4

As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DETWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jared Goff · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joshua Dobbs · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jahmyr Gibbs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Sione Vaki · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jacob Saylors · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Sam LaPorta · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brock Wright · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tyler Conklin · Reserve status: Active Pup

WR official #1 — Amon-Ra St. Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tom Kennedy · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jameson Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Isaac TeSlaa · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tay Martin · Availability unknown

ARIWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jacoby Brissett · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Gardner Minshew II · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Carson Beck · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Tyler Allgeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jeremiyah Love · Full

RB official #3 — Bam Knight · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Trey McBride · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Elijah Higgins · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Teagan Quitoriano · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Michael Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Simi Fehoko · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Reggie Virgil · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Marvin Harrison Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Brooks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kendrick Bourne · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Devin Duvernay · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDETARI
Projected points24.022.4
Win probability58.8%41.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status24 updates35 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 152 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 48 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

ARI recent scoring form vs DET prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 32.3.

DET recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 34.3.