Brock Purdy · SF
- Attempts
- 35.8 mean · 35.0 median · 27.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 24.6 mean · 24.0 median · 18.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 283 mean · 291 median · 155–356 80%
- Passing TD
- 2.46 mean · 91% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.78 mean · 54% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
SF at SEA
Sunday, October 11 · 3:25 PM CDT
SF 23.6 — SEA 25.6
SEA slight edge · SEA 51.7%
Projected total 49.3 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
SEA slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans SEA →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 109 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Sam Darnold · SEA
- Attempts
- 33.1 mean · 32.0 median · 24.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.7 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 243 mean · 242 median · 141–357 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.57 mean · 78% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Running back ranges
Kaelon Black · SF
- Opportunities
- 7.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 33 mean · 24 median · 10–66 80%
- Receptions
- 0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 0 median · 0–20 80%
- Total TD
- 23% 1+
Christian McCaffrey · SF
- Opportunities
- 16.0 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–25.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.8 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 46 median · 17–79 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 21 median · 6–45 80%
- Total TD
- 41% 1+
Jadarian Price · SEA
- Opportunities
- 9.1 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.3 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 35 mean · 32 median · 12–62 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
- Total TD
- 26% 1+
Emanuel Wilson · SEA
- Opportunities
- 11.1 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.8 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 35 mean · 28 median · 5–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 6 median · 0–20 80%
- Total TD
- 25% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
George Kittle · SF · TE
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 54 mean · 51 median · 27–88 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
Brayden Willis · SF · TE
- Targets
- 1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 0 median · 0–31 80%
- Receiving TD
- 8% 1+
Mike Evans · SF · WR
- Targets
- 5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 40 median · 14–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 27% 1+
Malik Turner · SF · WR
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 12 median · 0–53 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
AJ Barner · SEA · TE
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 29 median · 10–60 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Eric Saubert · SEA · TE
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 8 mean · 5 median · 0–23 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Montorie Foster Jr. · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 34 median · 11–57 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 11.6 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–15.0 80%
- Receptions
- 8.6 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 118 mean · 118 median · 61–172 80%
- Receiving TD
- 59% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
SF 23.6 — SEA 25.6
SEA · 51.7% win probability
- Margin
- SEA 2.0
- Total
- 49.3
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
SFWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Official depth is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Brock Purdy · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Mac Jones · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Kurtis Rourke · Inactive for Week 4
RB official #1 — Christian McCaffrey · Full
RB official #2 — Kaelon Black · Full
RB official #3 — Jordan James · Inactive for Week 4
TE official #1 — George Kittle · Reserve status: Active Pup
TE official #2 — Luke Farrell · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Brayden Willis · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Mike Evans · Did not participate
WR official #2 — Jacob Cowing · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jordan Watkins · Inactive for Week 2
WR official #3 — Brandin Cooks · Availability unknown
SEAWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Official depth order is ambiguous.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Sam Darnold · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Drew Lock · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Jalen Milroe · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Jadarian Price · Limited
RB official #2 — Emanuel Wilson · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #3 — George Holani · Questionable
TE official #1 — AJ Barner · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Eric Saubert · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Elijah Arroyo · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Nick Kallerup · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Full
WR official #2 — Tory Horton · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Cooper Kupp · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Rashid Shaheed · Full
WR official #2 — Montorie Foster Jr. · Practice squad
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points23.625.6
Win probability48.3%51.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status68 updates46 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 109 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
SEA recent scoring form vs SF prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 30.7; opponent allowed 19.0.
SF recent scoring form vs SEA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 31.7; opponent allowed 21.0.
Players
SF
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBBrock PurdyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update21.3QBMac JonesNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBKurtis RourkeInactive for Week 4UnknownInactive for Week 4Projection unavailableRBChristian McCaffreyFullUnknownFull13.7RBKaelon BlackFullUnknownFull7.1RBJordan JamesInactive for Week 4UnknownInactive for Week 4Projection unavailableTEGeorge KittleReserve status: Active PupUnknownReserve status: Active Pup9.8TELuke FarrellNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEBrayden WillisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update3.0WRMike EvansDid not participateUnknownDid not participate11.2WRJacob CowingNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJordan WatkinsInactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 2Projection unavailableWRBrandin CooksNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableSEA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBSam DarnoldNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update17.6QBDrew LockNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBJalen MilroeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBJadarian PriceLimitedUnknownLimited7.9RBEmanuel WilsonCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective7.5RBGeorge HolaniQuestionableUnknownQuestionableProjection unavailableTEAJ BarnerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.6TEEric SaubertNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.5TEElijah ArroyoNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTENick KallerupNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJaxon Smith-NjigbaFullUnknownFull22.6WRTory HortonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRCooper KuppNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.1WRRashid ShaheedFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRMontorie Foster Jr.Practice squadUnknownPractice squad9.4Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Brock PurdySF · #1 · floor 13.2 · upside 32.9SFQB#122.213.232.9Sam DarnoldSEA · #10 · floor 7.3 · upside 24.3SEAQB#1014.57.324.3Christian McCaffreySF · #9 · floor 4.2 · upside 23.8SFRB#912.64.223.8Jadarian PriceSEA · #35 · floor 1.8 · upside 15.8SEARB#356.41.815.8Emanuel WilsonSEA · #42 · floor 0.7 · upside 16.0SEARB#425.10.716.0Kaelon BlackSF · #43 · floor 1.3 · upside 14.6SFRB#434.71.314.6Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · #1 · floor 12.5 · upside 37.7SEAWR#125.712.537.7Mike EvansSF · #31 · floor 2.4 · upside 18.4SFWR#319.22.418.4Cooper KuppSEA · #46 · floor 2.1 · upside 14.6SEAWR#466.42.114.6Montorie Foster Jr.SEA · #49 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.1SEAWR#496.80.018.1Malik TurnerSF · #73 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.6SFWR#733.50.011.6George KittleSF · #4 · floor 4.7 · upside 20.3SFTE#411.34.720.3AJ BarnerSEA · #18 · floor 2.0 · upside 15.9SEATE#185.92.015.9Eric SaubertSEA · #53 · floor 0.0 · upside 7.6SEATE#531.60.07.6Brayden WillisSF · #56 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.1SFTE#560.00.06.1PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Brock Purdy SF · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 35.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 21.3 · 80% 10.6–32.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Christian McCaffrey SF · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 74% offense
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 15.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 13.7 · 80% 5.8–21.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kaelon Black SF · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 26% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 9.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.1 · 80% 0.0–15.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Evans SF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 59% offense
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- 6.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.2 · 80% 3.5–18.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malik Turner SF · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 0% offense
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.9 · 80% 0.0–11.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
George Kittle SF · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 91% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Active Pup
- Projected workload
- 5.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.8 · 80% 3.6–16.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brayden Willis SF · TE
- Current role
- TE3
- Prior usage
- 17% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 1.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.0 · 80% 0.0–9.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Sam Darnold SEA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 33.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.6 · 80% 7.0–28.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jadarian Price SEA · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 10.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.9 · 80% 0.0–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emanuel Wilson SEA · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 10.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.5 · 80% 0.0–15.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cooper Kupp SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 57% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 11.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 22.6 · 80% 14.9–30.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Montorie Foster Jr. SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.8–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
AJ Barner SEA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 90% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 2.4–14.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eric Saubert SEA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 30% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.5 · 80% 0.0–10.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
SF offensive TD state2.3 expected10.1% zero · 40.3% 3+
SEA offensive TD state2.6 expected7.6% zero · 47.4% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueLumen Field · Seattle, WA
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.6 mean · 2.0–10.0 80%Net yards 28 mean · 11–44 80%Rush TD 5% 1+
Attempts 2.9 mean · 0.0–6.0 80%Net yards 7 mean · 0–23 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
SEA
79 current depth players
62 with prior usage context
20 prior high-snap players
SF
57 current depth players
47 with prior usage context
14 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 13d281a49e270f63266f7e794a63dbe6f1143e8ea4c9b34401b1ebb25abb443b
Prediction cb9417c4e0e2dfc011c64790682d3fa25e25c466205773cebb37ef1b5dffb50b
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence