Tua Tagovailoa · ATL
- Attempts
- 27.7 mean · 26.0 median · 20.0–39.0 80%
- Completions
- 18.2 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 198 mean · 196 median · 120–279 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.24 mean · 69% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.65 mean · 47% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
BAL at ATL
Sunday, October 11 · 7:20 PM CDT
BAL 21.5 — ATL 24.8
ATL slight edge · ATL 55.7%
Projected total 46.3 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
ATL slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans ATL →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 129 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 20 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Lamar Jackson · BAL
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Medium uncertaintyRunning back ranges
Bijan Robinson · ATL
- Opportunities
- 24.1 mean · 24.0 median · 13.0–32.0 80%
- Carries
- 18.9 mean · 19.0 median · 10.0–26.0 80%
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 85 mean · 83 median · 41–126 80%
- Receptions
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 28 median · 8–56 80%
- Total TD
- 50% 1+
Derrick Henry · BAL
- Opportunities
- 23.6 mean · 24.0 median · 14.0–31.0 80%
- Carries
- 22.0 mean · 22.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 100 mean · 98 median · 49–149 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
- Total TD
- 59% 1+
Justice Hill · BAL
- Opportunities
- 6.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
- Carries
- 3.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 25 mean · 19 median · 0–53 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 16 median · 6–38 80%
- Total TD
- 26% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 12 median · 0–59 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 5 median · 0–13 80%
- Receiving TD
- 9% 1+
Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 26 median · 13–52 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Drake London · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 7.5 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 74 mean · 67 median · 21–127 80%
- Receiving TD
- 36% 1+
Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–41 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Mark Andrews · BAL · TE
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 40 median · 21–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Josh Cuevas · BAL · TE
- Targets
- 1.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 0 median · 0–40 80%
- Receiving TD
- 8% 1+
Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 42 median · 15–82 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Zay Flowers · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 7.5 mean · 7.0 median · 6.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 91 mean · 89 median · 54–139 80%
- Receiving TD
- 38% 1+
Devontez Walker · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 32 median · 0–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
BAL 21.5 — ATL 24.8
ATL · 55.7% win probability
- Margin
- ATL 3.3
- Total
- 46.3
As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
BALWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Lamar Jackson · Out
QB official #2 — Tyler Huntley · Current status: Transaction Effective
QB official #3 — Joe Fagnano · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Durham Smythe · Limited
TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full
TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Questionable
WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown
WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Full
WR official #2 — Chris Moore · Full
WR official #3 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown
ATLWeek 5 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Inactive for Week 2
QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2
QB official #3 — Cooper Rush · Availability unknown
QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 4
RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Drake London · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.524.8
Win probability44.3%55.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status56 updates43 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 129 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 20 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
ATL recent scoring form vs BAL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 27.7; opponent allowed 24.3.
BAL recent scoring form vs ATL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 24.0.
Players
BAL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBLamar JacksonOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableQBTyler HuntleyCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableQBJoe FagnanoNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBDerrick HenryNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update17.2RBJustice HillNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.5RBRasheen AliNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEDurham SmytheLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableTEMark AndrewsFullUnknownFull9.2TEJosh CuevasNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update3.7WRZay FlowersQuestionableUnknownQuestionable14.3WRDevontez WalkerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.8WRElijah SarrattNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRRashod BatemanFullUnknownFull9.7WRChris MooreFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRLaJohntay WesterNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableATL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBMichael Penix Jr.Inactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 2Projection unavailableQBTua TagovailoaInactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 215.7QBCooper RushNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBJack StrandInactive for Week 4UnknownInactive for Week 4Projection unavailableRBBijan RobinsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update19.3TEKyle Pitts Sr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.1TEAustin HooperNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECharlie WoernerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update3.7WROlamide ZaccheausNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.0WRZachariah BranchNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJahan DotsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.8WRDrake LondonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update15.1WRChris BlairPractice squadUnknownPractice squadProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Tua TagovailoaATL · #25 · floor 4.9 · upside 19.8ATLQB#2510.84.919.8Lamar JacksonBAL · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —BALQB————Bijan RobinsonATL · #2 · floor 8.6 · upside 31.3ATLRB#219.38.631.3Derrick HenryBAL · #3 · floor 7.0 · upside 29.8BALRB#317.07.029.8Justice HillBAL · #27 · floor 3.1 · upside 17.1BALRB#277.03.117.1Zay FlowersBAL · #4 · floor 8.5 · upside 27.3BALWR#416.68.527.3Drake LondonATL · #10 · floor 3.1 · upside 27.7ATLWR#1014.13.127.7Rashod BatemanBAL · #35 · floor 2.5 · upside 16.8BALWR#357.22.516.8Jahan DotsonATL · #62 · floor 2.3 · upside 12.9ATLWR#624.62.312.9Devontez WalkerBAL · #65 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.2BALWR#655.20.011.2Olamide ZaccheausATL · #71 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.0ATLWR#713.60.011.0Mark AndrewsBAL · #14 · floor 4.1 · upside 15.1BALTE#148.14.115.1Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL · #29 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.7ATLTE#292.20.014.7Josh CuevasBAL · #51 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.0BALTE#510.00.010.0Charlie WoernerATL · #54 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.0ATLTE#541.50.06.0PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Tua Tagovailoa ATL · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Inactive for Week 2
- Projected workload
- 27.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.7 · 80% 5.0–26.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Bijan Robinson ATL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 22.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 19.3 · 80% 11.4–27.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahan Dotson ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.0–14.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drake London ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 15.1 · 80% 7.4–22.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–13.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.1 · 80% 0.0–11.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Woerner ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 1.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.7 · 80% 0.0–9.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Lamar Jackson BAL · QB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Derrick Henry BAL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 21.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 9.4–25.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justice Hill BAL · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 38% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.0–14.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rashod Bateman BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 47% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.7 · 80% 2.0–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Zay Flowers BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 7.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 14.3 · 80% 6.6–21.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Devontez Walker BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 69% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.8 · 80% 0.0–12.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mark Andrews BAL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 5.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 3.0–15.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Josh Cuevas BAL · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 28% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.7 · 80% 0.0–10.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
ATL offensive TD state2.2 expected10.9% zero · 38.3% 3+
BAL offensive TD state2.4 expected9.1% zero · 42.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 1.5 mean · 0.0–4.0 80%Net yards 1 mean · -1–6 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
No confirmed rushing range yet.
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
ATL
92 current depth players
77 with prior usage context
3 prior high-snap players
BAL
74 current depth players
52 with prior usage context
17 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature f355e5aa0a498ff200374ec5289dbdf49883d52faf5e5cb6b45722e141a4a69a
Prediction 708b749c070c33a2b2f045ad8d0f039fdd6b3a5c4b4d41d1b1df9ebf9945ff32
Week a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
As of 2026-10-09 15:19:01
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence