P5 V4 baseline

BUF at LAR

Monday, October 12 · 7:15 PM CDT

BUF 23.0 — LAR 24.7

LAR slight edge · LAR 50.7%

Projected total 47.7 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects LAR slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans LAR →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Josh Allen · BUF

Attempts
31.0 mean · 30.0 median · 21.0–39.0 80%
Completions
20.4 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–27.0 80%
Passing yards
237 mean · 254 median · 136–338 80%
Passing TD
1.50 mean · 77% 1+
Interceptions
0.66 mean · 48% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Matthew Stafford · LAR

Attempts
32.5 mean · 33.0 median · 21.0–47.0 80%
Completions
21.1 mean · 21.0 median · 12.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
244 mean · 243 median · 132–365 80%
Passing TD
1.59 mean · 77% 1+
Interceptions
0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

James Cook III · BUF

Opportunities
18.4 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Carries
16.0 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
74 mean · 72 median · 36–113 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 13 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
43% 1+
High

Ty Johnson · BUF

Opportunities
6.4 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Carries
4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
27 mean · 22 median · 11–53 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 16 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
High

Blake Corum · LAR

Opportunities
9.2 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Carries
8.2 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
47 mean · 41 median · 23–79 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 4 median · 0–18 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Medium

Kyren Williams · LAR

Opportunities
18.2 mean · 16.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
Carries
14.3 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
62 mean · 56 median · 33–103 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 17 median · 6–38 80%
Total TD
41% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
63 mean · 62 median · 32–108 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 19 median · 8–47 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 36 median · 12–73 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 42 median · 14–83 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 33 median · 12–64 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Davis Allen · LAR · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 9 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Colby Parkinson · LAR · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 17 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Davante Adams · LAR · WR

Targets
9.1 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
71 mean · 71 median · 30–112 80%
Receiving TD
58% 1+
High

CJ Daniels · LAR · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Puka Nacua · LAR · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
69 mean · 74 median · 17–117 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BUF 23.0 — LAR 24.7

LAR · 50.7% win probability

Margin
LAR 1.7
Total
47.7

As of Oct 9, 2026 15:19 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BUFWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Josh Allen · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Kyle Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — James Cook III · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Ray Davis · Full

RB official #3 — Ty Johnson · Inactive for Week 1

TE official #1 — Dalton Kincaid · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Dawson Knox · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jackson Hawes · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Keleki Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Khalil Shakir · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Greg Dortch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DJ Moore · Questionable

WR official #2 — Skyler Bell · Inactive for Week 1

WR official #1 — Keon Coleman · Full

WR official #2 — Joshua Palmer · Availability unknown

LARWeek 5 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Matthew Stafford · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Stetson Bennett IV · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Ty Simpson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kyren Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Blake Corum · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dean Connors · Waived

TE official #1 — Davis Allen · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Tyler Higbee · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Colby Parkinson · Full

TE official #2 — Max Klare · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Davante Adams · Full

WR official #2 — Konata Mumpfield · Full

WR official #3 — CJ Daniels · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Puka Nacua · Limited

WR official #2 — Jordan Whittington · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Tutu Atwell · Availability unknown

WR official #4 — Alex Bachman · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBUFLAR
Projected points23.024.7
Win probability49.3%50.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates58 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BUF recent scoring form vs LAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 30.3; opponent allowed 18.7.

LAR recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 26.0; opponent allowed 25.3.