C.J. Stroud · HOU
- Attempts
- 33.0 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.6 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 242 mean · 247 median · 165–350 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.32 mean · 71% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.66 mean · 47% 1+
PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast
HOU at JAX
Sunday, October 18 · 8:30 AM CDT
HOU 19.0 — JAX 22.6
JAX slight edge · JAX 57.8%
Projected total 41.6 · Confidence: limited input
PardonMe projects
JAX slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record
Game simulation
Frozen Oct 18, 7:33 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations
Limited input. HOU: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) JAX: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.
Projected score (mean)HOU 19.0 — JAX 22.6Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total41.680% of simulations: 25–59
Expected margin · implied spreadJAX by 3.5 · JAX −3.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultHOU 37.4% · JAX 57.8%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.8% · overtime not modelled
Scoring range
SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
HOU score7.019.031.019.0
JAX score10.023.035.022.6
Combined total25.041.059.041.6
JAX margin (home − away)-13.03.020.03.5
The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.
How this forecast was made →
- Model
- PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
- Simulations
- 4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
- Information cutoff
- Oct 18, 7:30 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 7:30 AM CDT)
- Frozen
- Oct 18, 7:33:06 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
- Evidence class
- FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
- Availability evidence
- HOU: INACTIVES PARTIAL. JAX: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
- Games of usage history
- HOU: 5. JAX: 5.
- Record
63cffef37147fd7c(ledger entry) · codee2eb0e80
Limitations
- Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
- Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
- Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
- Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
- Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
- Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
- The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.
One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Trevor Lawrence · JAX
- Attempts
- 30.4 mean · 29.0 median · 22.0–38.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.7 mean · 19.0 median · 13.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 226 mean · 231 median · 154–319 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.67 mean · 80% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Running back ranges
Woody Marks · HOU
- Opportunities
- 12.0 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.8 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 33 mean · 31 median · 4–61 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 6 median · 0–19 80%
- Total TD
- 23% 1+
David Montgomery · HOU
- Opportunities
- 9.9 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.5 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 35 median · 20–71 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 33% 1+
Ameer Abdullah · JAX
- Opportunities
- 4.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 2.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 20 mean · 17 median · 0–51 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 11 median · 0–35 80%
- Total TD
- 20% 1+
Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX
- Opportunities
- 8.8 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.3 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 43 mean · 38 median · 19–73 80%
- Receptions
- 0.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 4 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Foster Moreau · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 19 median · 0–38 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 29 median · 10–68 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Nico Collins · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 8.7 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 91 mean · 96 median · 34–143 80%
- Receiving TD
- 40% 1+
Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 43 median · 15–86 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Jared Wayne · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 23 median · 0–63 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 9 median · 0–30 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Brenton Strange · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 48 mean · 51 median · 16–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 48 mean · 49 median · 13–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 28 median · 0–70 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
CJ Williams · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Other PardonMe models (comparison)
The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
HOU 20.6 — JAX 24.5
JAX · 57.1% win probability
- Margin
- JAX 3.9
- Total
- 45.1
As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
HOUWeek 6 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — C.J. Stroud · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Davis Mills · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — David Montgomery · Did not participate
RB official #2 — Woody Marks · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Dare Ogunbowale · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Dalton Schultz · Limited
TE official #2 — Foster Moreau · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Marlin Klein · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Cade Stover · Availability unknown
TE official #5 — Brevin Jordan · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Nico Collins · Limited
WR official #2 — Player 20 · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Xavier Hutchinson · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Kayshon Boutte · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jaylin Noel · Reserve status: Active Nfi
JAXWeek 6 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Trevor Lawrence · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Quinn Ewers · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Bhayshul Tuten · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — LeQuint Allen Jr. · Full
RB official #3 — Ameer Abdullah · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Brenton Strange · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Nate Boerkircher · Limited
TE official #3 — Quintin Morris · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Tanner Koziol · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jakobi Meyers · Full
WR official #2 — CJ Williams · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Brian Thomas Jr. · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Travis Hunter · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Parker Washington · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Josh Cameron · Availability unknown
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.022.6
Win probability (regulation)37.4%57.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status49 updates23 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 129 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
HOU recent scoring form vs JAX prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 24.3; opponent allowed 13.3.
JAX recent scoring form vs HOU prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 25.3; opponent allowed 18.7.
Players
HOU
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBC.J. StroudNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update16.6QBDavis MillsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBDavid MontgomeryDid not participateUnknownDid not participate9.1RBWoody MarksNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.3RBDare OgunbowaleNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEDalton SchultzLimitedUnknownLimited8.3TEFoster MoreauCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective5.1TEMarlin KleinNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECade StoverNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEBrevin JordanNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRNico CollinsLimitedUnknownLimited16.7WRPlayer 20No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRXavier HutchinsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.0WRKayshon BoutteNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJaylin NoelReserve status: Active NfiUnknownReserve status: Active NfiProjection unavailableJAX
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBTrevor LawrenceNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update17.2QBQuinn EwersNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBChris Rodriguez Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.1RBBhayshul TutenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBLeQuint Allen Jr.FullUnknownFullProjection unavailableRBAmeer AbdullahNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.0TEBrenton StrangeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.9TENate BoerkircherLimitedUnknownLimited4.6TEQuintin MorrisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTETanner KoziolNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJakobi MeyersFullUnknownFull10.8WRCJ WilliamsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.3WRBrian Thomas Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.4WRTravis HunterNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRParker WashingtonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJosh CameronNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Trevor LawrenceJAX · #9 · floor 8.4 · upside 24.9JAXQB#915.48.424.9C.J. StroudHOU · #14 · floor 7.4 · upside 23.3HOUQB#1414.27.423.3David MontgomeryHOU · #27 · floor 2.9 · upside 17.3HOURB#277.42.917.3Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · #37 · floor 2.2 · upside 15.1JAXRB#376.22.215.1Woody MarksHOU · #45 · floor 0.7 · upside 14.7HOURB#455.80.714.7Ameer AbdullahJAX · #46 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.2JAXRB#464.30.016.2Nico CollinsHOU · #6 · floor 7.3 · upside 30.2HOUWR#617.57.330.2Jakobi MeyersJAX · #28 · floor 2.4 · upside 19.4JAXWR#2810.62.419.4Xavier HutchinsonHOU · #41 · floor 2.5 · upside 16.9HOUWR#417.32.516.9CJ WilliamsJAX · #51 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1JAXWR#516.82.318.1Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · #66 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.4JAXWR#666.10.014.4Jared WayneHOU · #77 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.8HOUWR#774.30.012.8Brenton StrangeJAX · #9 · floor 3.6 · upside 17.9JAXTE#99.13.617.9Dalton SchultzHOU · #16 · floor 2.0 · upside 17.9HOUTE#165.92.017.9Foster MoreauHOU · #37 · floor 0.0 · upside 9.9HOUTE#373.90.09.9Nate BoerkircherJAX · #45 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.1JAXTE#451.90.08.1PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
These comparisons use the legacy model, not the PA-1 simulation above. PA-1 has not been validated against sportsbook lines, so no edge is claimed.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
C.J. Stroud HOU · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.6 · 80% 5.9–27.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
David Montgomery HOU · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 11.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.2–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Woody Marks HOU · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.3 · 80% 0.4–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nico Collins HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 8.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 16.7 · 80% 9.0–24.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Xavier Hutchinson HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jared Wayne HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 29% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–13.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dalton Schultz HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 4.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.3 · 80% 2.1–14.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Foster Moreau HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 2.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.1 · 80% 0.0–11.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 30.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 6.6–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 10.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.1 · 80% 0.2–16.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ameer Abdullah JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 7.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–13.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 5.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.8 · 80% 3.1–18.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.4 · 80% 0.7–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
CJ Williams JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–17.0
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brenton Strange JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 2.7–15.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nate Boerkircher JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.6 · 80% 0.0–10.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
HOU offensive TD state2.2 expected10.9% zero · 38.3% 3+
JAX offensive TD state2.5 expected8.5% zero · 44.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueEverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 3.1 mean · 2.0–6.0 80%Net yards 9 mean · 0–29 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Attempts 3.7 mean · 2.0–8.0 80%Net yards 14 mean · 0–26 80%Rush TD 5% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
JAX
89 current depth players
73 with prior usage context
1 prior high-snap players
HOU
65 current depth players
56 with prior usage context
2 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature cf3f610371d4c2ed2c458c7a50dbc5c398ef52a921b71b074dbf189dfb16ec03
Prediction 63cffef37147fd7cb1d8eb2bd04f43f4d015005152c28009c34ef39566a238e5
Week 2756af9cfd0e102960aa259fd190a7120e93eb926ddc2f3089a38a0c2010be78
As of 2026-10-18 12:33:06.000000
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): limited input