Tua Tagovailoa · ATL
- Attempts
- 31.5 mean · 29.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.5 mean · 19.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 224 mean · 221 median · 134–311 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.41 mean · 74% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Sunday, October 18 · 12:00 PM CDT
CHI 21.2 — ATL 22.2
Nearly even · ATL 50.2%
Projected total 43.4 · Confidence: limited input
Frozen Oct 18, 11:03 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations
Limited input. ATL: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) CHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.
The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.
f086959b85923143 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
Previous production baseline
CHI 19.4 — ATL 25.8
ATL · 65.3% win probability
As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Full
QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Full
RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Did not participate
RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Cole Kmet · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #3 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Full
QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2
QB official #3 — Cooper Rush · Availability unknown
QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 5
RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Brian Robinson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Drake London · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 152 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
2025 final-three scoring average 34.3; opponent allowed 16.7.
2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 22.7.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
These comparisons use the legacy model, not the PA-1 simulation above. PA-1 has not been validated against sportsbook lines, so no edge is claimed.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
92 current depth players
77 with prior usage context
3 prior high-snap players
89 current depth players
75 with prior usage context
2 prior high-snap players
Feature f8ba0cb8e4d12517b559497aaae142b469501ee522eb3fd3dddcc545804ffd10
Prediction f086959b859231438495dd66104d1f6aa207afe5048deb89c69726b901313fcf
Week 2756af9cfd0e102960aa259fd190a7120e93eb926ddc2f3089a38a0c2010be78
As of 2026-10-18 16:03:08.000000
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id)nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id)nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr')nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id)nfl_unit_matchups_serving and nfl_passing_matchups_serving