PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

CHI at ATL

Sunday, October 18 · 12:00 PM CDT

CHI 21.2 — ATL 22.2

Nearly even · ATL 50.2%

Projected total 43.4 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 11:03 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. ATL: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) CHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)CHI 21.2 — ATL 22.2Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total43.480% of simulations: 27–61
Expected margin · implied spreadATL by 1.1 · ATL −1.1Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultCHI 45.6% · ATL 50.2%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.3% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
CHI score10.021.033.021.2
ATL score10.021.035.022.2
Combined total27.043.061.043.4
ATL margin (home − away)-16.01.018.01.1

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

CHI wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ ATL wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 11:03:08 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
ATL: INACTIVES PARTIAL. CHI: DESIGNATIONS ONLY.
Games of usage history
ATL: 5. CHI: 5.
Record
f086959b85923143 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Tua Tagovailoa · ATL

Attempts
31.5 mean · 29.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
Completions
20.5 mean · 19.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
224 mean · 221 median · 134–311 80%
Passing TD
1.41 mean · 74% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Caleb Williams · CHI

Attempts
42.3 mean · 43.0 median · 35.0–52.0 80%
Completions
26.9 mean · 27.0 median · 20.0–34.0 80%
Passing yards
297 mean · 300 median · 194–412 80%
Passing TD
2.01 mean · 86% 1+
Interceptions
0.88 mean · 58% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Bijan Robinson · ATL

Opportunities
24.8 mean · 25.0 median · 14.0–33.0 80%
Carries
19.3 mean · 19.0 median · 11.0–27.0 80%
Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Rushing yards
87 mean · 85 median · 40–131 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 28 median · 8–54 80%
Total TD
50% 1+
High

Kyle Monangai · CHI

Opportunities
13.0 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Carries
11.3 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–20.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
48 mean · 41 median · 21–88 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
Medium

D'Andre Swift · CHI

Opportunities
16.4 mean · 17.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Carries
13.6 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
61 mean · 60 median · 32–90 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 15 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
41% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 13 median · 0–69 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 6 median · 0–15 80%
Receiving TD
9% 1+
Medium

Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 28 median · 14–56 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Drake London · ATL · WR

Targets
7.9 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
82 mean · 85 median · 24–133 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR

Targets
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Cole Kmet · CHI · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 20 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Colston Loveland · CHI · TE

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 32 median · 11–74 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Luther Burden III · CHI · WR

Targets
7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
65 mean · 66 median · 40–92 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Medium

Rome Odunze · CHI · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 47 median · 17–77 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Jahdae Walker · CHI · WR

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 22 median · 0–47 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CHI 19.4 — ATL 25.8

ATL · 65.3% win probability

Margin
ATL 6.4
Total
45.1

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CHIWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Full

QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Full

RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Did not participate

RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Cole Kmet · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

ATLWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Full

QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2

QB official #3 — Cooper Rush · Availability unknown

QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 5

RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Brian Robinson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Drake London · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCHIATL
Projected points21.222.2
Win probability (regulation)45.6%50.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status77 updates43 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 152 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

ATL recent scoring form vs CHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 34.3; opponent allowed 16.7.

CHI recent scoring form vs ATL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 22.7.