PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

BAL at CLE

Sunday, October 18 · 12:00 PM CDT

BAL 21.6 — CLE 18.0

BAL slight edge · BAL 59.3%

Projected total 39.6 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects BAL slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 11:03 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. BAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)BAL 21.6 — CLE 18.0Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total39.680% of simulations: 24–56
Expected margin · implied spreadBAL by 3.6 · BAL −3.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultBAL 59.3% · CLE 36.4%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.3% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
BAL score10.021.033.021.6
CLE score7.017.030.018.0
Combined total24.039.056.039.6
CLE margin (home − away)-20.0-3.012.1-3.6

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

BAL wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ CLE wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 11:03:30 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
BAL: DESIGNATIONS ONLY. CLE: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
BAL: 5. CLE: 5.
Record
a15fafe801d9ce05 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Lamar Jackson · BAL

Attempts
29.4 mean · 29.0 median · 15.0–41.0 80%
Completions
19.0 mean · 19.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
241 mean · 240 median · 133–355 80%
Passing TD
1.62 mean · 77% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Deshaun Watson · CLE

Attempts
26.2 mean · 26.0 median · 18.0–34.0 80%
Completions
16.0 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–22.0 80%
Passing yards
173 mean · 163 median · 102–249 80%
Passing TD
1.11 mean · 66% 1+
Interceptions
0.55 mean · 42% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Derrick Henry · BAL

Opportunities
20.4 mean · 21.0 median · 11.0–28.0 80%
Carries
19.1 mean · 20.0 median · 10.0–26.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
86 mean · 85 median · 36–134 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
54% 1+
High

Justice Hill · BAL

Opportunities
6.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Carries
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
25 mean · 17 median · 0–54 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
23% 1+
High

Quinshon Judkins · CLE

Opportunities
16.3 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Carries
13.7 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 43 median · 25–68 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
Medium

Raheim Sanders · CLE

Opportunities
6.2 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Carries
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 24 median · 0–67 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mark Andrews · BAL · TE

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 38 median · 21–56 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Josh Cuevas · BAL · TE

Targets
1.2 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 0 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
7% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 41 median · 15–83 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Zay Flowers · BAL · WR

Targets
8.8 mean · 8.0 median · 7.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
6.6 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
102 mean · 98 median · 67–145 80%
Receiving TD
43% 1+
High

Devontez Walker · BAL · WR

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 30 median · 0–47 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
Medium

Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 33 median · 12–74 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Medium

Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Medium

Denzel Boston · CLE · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
69 mean · 71 median · 36–107 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
Medium

Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 23 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 3.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 26 median · 4–47 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
Medium

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BAL 22.7 — CLE 22.1

BAL · 56.2% win probability

Margin
BAL 0.6
Total
44.8

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BALWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Lamar Jackson · Did not participate

QB official #2 — Tyler Huntley · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #3 — Joe Fagnano · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Vannett · Full

TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full

TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Limited

WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Did not participate

WR official #2 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown

CLEWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Deshaun Watson · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Shedeur Sanders · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Taylen Green · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Raheim Sanders · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Carsen Ryan · Limited

WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Limited

WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Limited

WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBALCLE
Projected points21.618.0
Win probability (regulation)59.3%36.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status56 updates73 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 105 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BAL recent scoring form vs CLE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 19.7.

CLE recent scoring form vs BAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.0; opponent allowed 24.0.