PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

TEN at IND

Sunday, October 18 · 12:00 PM CDT

TEN 17.9 — IND 27.3

IND clear edge · IND 76.3%

Projected total 45.2 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects IND clear edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 11:03 AM CDT · 56 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. IND: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) TEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)TEN 17.9 — IND 27.3Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total45.280% of simulations: 29–62
Expected margin · implied spreadIND by 9.5 · IND −9.5Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultTEN 20.4% · IND 76.3%Tie after 60 minutes: 3.3% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
TEN score7.017.030.017.9
IND score16.027.040.027.3
Combined total29.044.062.045.2
IND margin (home − away)-6.110.026.09.5

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

TEN wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ IND wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 11:03:51 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
IND: INACTIVES PARTIAL. TEN: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
IND: 5. TEN: 5.
Record
68cfeee1ff1af4dc (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Daniel Jones · IND

Attempts
26.2 mean · 25.0 median · 19.0–38.0 80%
Completions
17.0 mean · 17.0 median · 11.0–24.0 80%
Passing yards
177 mean · 170 median · 119–237 80%
Passing TD
1.00 mean · 62% 1+
Interceptions
0.57 mean · 43% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Cam Ward · TEN

Attempts
31.9 mean · 32.0 median · 21.0–40.0 80%
Completions
20.4 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–27.0 80%
Passing yards
212 mean · 204 median · 142–289 80%
Passing TD
1.29 mean · 71% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
28 mean · 22 median · 7–61 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–16 80%
Total TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
22.7 mean · 23.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
Carries
19.1 mean · 19.5 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
67 mean · 68 median · 35–95 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Michael Carter · TEN

Opportunities
13.8 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.0 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 33 median · 17–63 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 7–44 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Tony Pollard · TEN

Opportunities
17.8 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–23.0 80%
Carries
15.8 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
65 mean · 63 median · 33–95 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 10 median · 0–24 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–27 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 33 median · 18–57 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
7.2 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 49 median · 25–85 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Laquon Treadwell · IND · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 25 median · 0–62 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 37 median · 11–64 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–29 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 14 median · 6–38 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR

Targets
3.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 15 median · 0–81 80%
Receiving TD
9% 1+
High

Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 42 median · 0–83 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Carnell Tate · TEN · WR

Targets
7.7 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
62 mean · 54 median · 28–101 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Medium

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TEN 16.3 — IND 24.3

IND · 69.1% win probability

Margin
IND 8.0
Total
40.6

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TENWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Cam Ward · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mitchell Trubisky · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Tony Pollard · Full

RB official #2 — Tyjae Spears · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Nicholas Singleton · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Michael Carter · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — Julius Chestnut · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Gunnar Helm · Full

TE official #2 — Daniel Bellinger · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Kylen Granson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — David Martin-Robinson · Limited

WR official #1 — Calvin Ridley · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Chimere Dike · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Carnell Tate · Questionable

WR official #2 — Elic Ayomanor · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Wan'Dale Robinson · Current status: Transaction Effective

INDWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Anthony Richardson Sr. · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Riley Leonard · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Full

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Did not participate

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Darius Slayton · Out

WR official #1 — Josh Downs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Anthony Gould · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Keenan Allen · Questionable

WR official #2 — Ashton Dulin · Out

WR official #3 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTENIND
Projected points17.927.3
Win probability (regulation)20.4%76.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status43 updates30 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 142 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

TEN recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 9.3; opponent allowed 21.3.

IND recent scoring form vs TEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 20.7.