PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

CAR at PHI

Sunday, October 18 · 12:00 PM CDT

CAR 18.6 — PHI 23.1

PHI edge · PHI 62.2%

Projected total 41.7 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects PHI edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT · 55 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. CAR: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) PHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)CAR 18.6 — PHI 23.1Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total41.780% of simulations: 26–58
Expected margin · implied spreadPHI by 4.5 · PHI −4.5Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultCAR 33.6% · PHI 62.2%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.3% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
CAR score7.018.030.018.6
PHI score12.023.035.023.1
Combined total26.041.058.041.7
PHI margin (home − away)-12.04.021.04.5

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

CAR wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ PHI wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 11:05:01 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
CAR: DESIGNATIONS ONLY. PHI: DESIGNATIONS ONLY.
Games of usage history
CAR: 4. PHI: 5.
Record
77ad74716ddac2b5 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Bryce Young · CAR

Attempts
35.5 mean · 36.0 median · 26.0–47.0 80%
Completions
23.0 mean · 23.0 median · 16.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
252 mean · 268 median · 138–358 80%
Passing TD
1.71 mean · 80% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jalen Hurts · PHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

AJ Dillon · CAR

Opportunities
6.2 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Carries
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
25 mean · 21 median · 0–53 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 0 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
19% 1+
High

Chuba Hubbard · CAR

Opportunities
18.1 mean · 15.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
Carries
14.5 mean · 12.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 45 median · 28–92 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 15 median · 0–37 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
High

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Opportunities
10.7 mean · 11.0 median · 0.0–18.0 80%
Carries
9.3 mean · 10.0 median · 0.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 50 median · 0–85 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mitchell Evans · CAR · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 18 median · 8–39 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Tommy Tremble · CAR · TE

Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 19 median · 9–49 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Jalen Coker · CAR · WR

Targets
8.2 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
83 mean · 85 median · 50–123 80%
Receiving TD
44% 1+
Medium

Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
59 mean · 48 median · 17–107 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
Medium

Brycen Tremayne · CAR · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 23 median · 9–61 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 22 median · 2–62 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–19 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Darius Cooper · PHI · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 39 median · 12–78 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Medium

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

Targets
9.2 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
74 mean · 69 median · 31–118 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 42 median · 15–82 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CAR 23.0 — PHI 20.6

CAR · 61.6% win probability

Margin
CAR 2.4
Total
43.6

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CARWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bryce Young · Full

QB official #2 — Kenny Pickett · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Haynes King · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chuba Hubbard · Did not participate

RB official #2 — AJ Dillon · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Tommy Tremble · Limited

TE official #2 — Mitchell Evans · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Darren Waller · Limited

TE official #4 — Ja'Tavion Sanders · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Feleipe Franks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Coker · Full

WR official #2 — David Moore · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Tetairoa McMillan · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brycen Tremayne · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — John Metchie III · Availability unknown

PHIWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jalen Hurts · Did not participate

QB official #2 — Tanner McKee · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Cole Payton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Saquon Barkley · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Will Shipley · Did not participate

RB official #3 — Dameon Pierce · Released

RB official #3 — Carson Steele · Waived

TE official #1 — Dallas Goedert · Full

TE official #2 — Johnny Mundt · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — E.J. Jenkins · Limited

WR official #1 — DeVonta Smith · Limited

WR official #2 — Hollywood Brown · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Dontayvion Wicks · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Darius Cooper · Full

WR official #1 — Makai Lemon · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Elijah Moore · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Britain Covey · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCARPHI
Projected points18.623.1
Win probability (regulation)33.6%62.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates70 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 149 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 28 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CAR recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 28.0; opponent allowed 23.3.

PHI recent scoring form vs CAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 14.7; opponent allowed 16.7.