PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

LAC at KC

Sunday, October 18 · 3:25 PM CDT

LAC 19.0 — KC 23.6

KC edge · KC 61.6%

Projected total 42.7 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects KC edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 2:27 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. KC: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) LAC: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)LAC 19.0 — KC 23.6Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total42.780% of simulations: 26–61
Expected margin · implied spreadKC by 4.6 · KC −4.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultLAC 34.4% · KC 61.6%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.0% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
LAC score7.019.031.019.0
KC score10.923.037.023.6
Combined total26.042.061.042.7
KC margin (home − away)-12.04.021.04.6

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

LAC wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ KC wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 2:25 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 2:25 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 2:27:59 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
KC: DESIGNATIONS ONLY. LAC: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
KC: 4. LAC: 5.
Record
21d4b5509ed1e68f (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Patrick Mahomes · KC

Attempts
32.9 mean · 31.0 median · 24.0–46.0 80%
Completions
20.3 mean · 19.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
235 mean · 222 median · 156–349 80%
Passing TD
1.53 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Justin Herbert · LAC

Attempts
28.4 mean · 27.0 median · 22.0–36.0 80%
Completions
17.7 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–24.0 80%
Passing yards
202 mean · 194 median · 112–277 80%
Passing TD
1.20 mean · 69% 1+
Interceptions
0.67 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
7.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–17.0 80%
Carries
5.9 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–14.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 24 median · 0–63 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Omarion Hampton · LAC

Opportunities
14.9 mean · 14.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Carries
12.5 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 52 median · 29–88 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Noah Gray · KC · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 10 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 44 median · 12–78 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 37 median · 0–71 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
Medium

Tyquan Thornton · KC · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 38 median · 0–95 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 37 median · 12–63 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Oronde Gadsden · LAC · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 24 median · 13–60 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE

Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 23 median · 12–47 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Tre' Harris · LAC · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 43 median · 15–71 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
Medium

Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 41 median · 13–70 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Ladd McConkey · LAC · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 41 median · 13–83 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAC 19.3 — KC 25.5

KC · 64.2% win probability

Margin
KC 6.2
Total
44.8

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LACWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Justin Herbert · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — DJ Uiagalelei · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Omarion Hampton · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Keaton Mitchell · Limited

RB official #3 — Kimani Vidal · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Charlie Kolar · Full

TE official #2 — Oronde Gadsden · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Hayden Rucci · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ladd McConkey · Limited

WR official #2 — Tre' Harris · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Derius Davis · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Theo Wease Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Quentin Johnston · Limited

WR official #2 — Brenen Thompson · Limited

WR official #3 — Marquez Valdes-Scantling · Full

KCWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Patrick Mahomes · Full

QB official #2 — Justin Fields · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Garrett Nussmeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emmett Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Brashard Smith · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Travis Kelce · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Gray · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jared Wiley · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Jake Briningstool · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashee Rice · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jalen Royals · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Worthy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Nikko Remigio · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Cyrus Allen · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLACKC
Projected points19.023.6
Win probability (regulation)34.4%61.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates38 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 130 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 26 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAC recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.7; opponent allowed 22.3.

KC recent scoring form vs LAC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.0; opponent allowed 25.7.