PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

BUF at LV

Sunday, October 18 · 3:25 PM CDT

BUF 27.1 — LV 20.5

BUF edge · BUF 67.8%

Projected total 47.6 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects BUF edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 2:28 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. BUF: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) LV: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)BUF 27.1 — LV 20.5Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total47.680% of simulations: 30–65
Expected margin · implied spreadBUF by 6.6 · BUF −6.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultBUF 67.8% · LV 28.6%Tie after 60 minutes: 3.6% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
BUF score16.027.040.027.1
LV score9.020.032.020.5
Combined total30.047.065.047.6
LV margin (home − away)-23.0-7.010.0-6.6

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

BUF wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ LV wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 2:25 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 2:25 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 2:28:21 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
LV: INACTIVES PARTIAL. BUF: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
LV: 5. BUF: 5.
Record
8ac4460d5a3f801a (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Josh Allen · BUF

Attempts
29.4 mean · 29.0 median · 19.0–38.0 80%
Completions
19.1 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
Passing yards
225 mean · 221 median · 128–328 80%
Passing TD
1.35 mean · 72% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 48% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Kirk Cousins · LV

Attempts
34.3 mean · 34.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
Completions
22.0 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
239 mean · 238 median · 140–353 80%
Passing TD
1.83 mean · 82% 1+
Interceptions
0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

James Cook III · BUF

Opportunities
19.6 mean · 19.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Carries
17.4 mean · 17.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
78 mean · 77 median · 37–118 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 13 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
46% 1+
High

Ty Johnson · BUF

Opportunities
5.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Carries
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
22 mean · 18 median · 0–50 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 10 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
22% 1+
High

Ashton Jeanty · LV

Opportunities
18.0 mean · 20.0 median · 9.0–26.0 80%
Carries
13.9 mean · 14.0 median · 6.0–21.0 80%
Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 50 median · 21–79 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 22 median · 6–50 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Mike Washington Jr. · LV

Opportunities
7.1 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–16.0 80%
Carries
5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
31 mean · 27 median · 0–67 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 6 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 44 median · 29–88 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 19 median · 9–47 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 49 median · 24–87 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
Medium

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 42 median · 14–83 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 48 median · 24–83 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Brock Bowers · LV · TE

Targets
7.7 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
6.0 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
67 mean · 60 median · 27–114 80%
Receiving TD
38% 1+
High

Michael Mayer · LV · TE

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 27 median · 8–64 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Jalen Nailor · LV · WR

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 30 median · 14–73 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Tre Tucker · LV · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 36 median · 12–73 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BUF 23.8 — LV 23.3

BUF · 55.1% win probability

Margin
BUF 0.5
Total
47.1

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BUFWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Josh Allen · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Kyle Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — James Cook III · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Ray Davis · Full

RB official #3 — Ty Johnson · Limited

TE official #1 — Dalton Kincaid · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Dawson Knox · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jackson Hawes · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Keleki Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Khalil Shakir · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Greg Dortch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DJ Moore · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Skyler Bell · Inactive for Week 1

WR official #1 — Keon Coleman · Full

WR official #2 — Joshua Palmer · Inactive for Week 5

LVWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kirk Cousins · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Aidan O'Connell · Did not participate

RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Full

RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Limited

TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Dareke Young · Full

WR official #3 — Cody White · Full

WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBUFLV
Projected points27.120.5
Win probability (regulation)67.8%28.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates76 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 131 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 1 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BUF recent scoring form vs LV prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.0; opponent allowed 34.0.

LV recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 26.3; opponent allowed 26.3.