PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

DAL at GB

Sunday, October 18 · 7:20 PM CDT

DAL 24.6 — GB 26.0

Nearly even · GB 51.8%

Projected total 50.6 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 18, 6:23 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. DAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) GB: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)DAL 24.6 — GB 26.0Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total50.680% of simulations: 33–69
Expected margin · implied spreadGB by 1.4 · GB −1.4Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultDAL 43.7% · GB 51.8%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.5% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
DAL score13.024.037.024.6
GB score14.026.038.026.0
Combined total33.050.069.050.6
GB margin (home − away)-14.01.017.01.4

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

DAL wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ GB wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 18, 6:20 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 18, 6:20 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 18, 6:23:01 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
GB: INACTIVES PARTIAL. DAL: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
GB: 5. DAL: 5.
Record
4ee08d28792f7258 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Dak Prescott · DAL

Attempts
32.7 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
Completions
21.4 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
241 mean · 263 median · 153–320 80%
Passing TD
1.45 mean · 75% 1+
Interceptions
0.67 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jordan Love · GB

Attempts
31.5 mean · 30.0 median · 19.0–43.0 80%
Completions
19.9 mean · 19.0 median · 11.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
232 mean · 226 median · 118–356 80%
Passing TD
1.55 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.69 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Javonte Williams · DAL

Opportunities
21.5 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
Carries
18.0 mean · 18.0 median · 12.0–24.0 80%
Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
64 mean · 63 median · 37–90 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Chris Brooks · GB

Opportunities
6.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Carries
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 30 median · 18–66 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
23% 1+
Medium

MarShawn Lloyd · GB

Opportunities
10.4 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
Carries
8.2 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
31 mean · 27 median · 14–54 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 17 median · 0–34 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–18 80%
Receiving TD
9% 1+
Medium

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 35 median · 11–72 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

Targets
10.0 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
7.2 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
99 mean · 98 median · 43–153 80%
Receiving TD
40% 1+
High

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Targets
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
59 mean · 57 median · 15–112 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Tucker Kraft · GB · TE

Targets
5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 54 median · 14–93 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Jonnu Smith · GB · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Matthew Golden · GB · WR

Targets
7.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 48 median · 17–108 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Medium

J. Michael Sturdivant · GB · WR

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–50 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Christian Watson · GB · WR

Targets
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
79 mean · 81 median · 33–130 80%
Receiving TD
51% 1+
High

15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DAL 21.6 — GB 23.5

GB · 51.2% win probability

Margin
GB 1.9
Total
45.1

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DALWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Dak Prescott · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Sam Howell · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Javonte Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyler Goodson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Jake Ferguson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brevyn Spann-Ford · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Luke Schoonmaker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — George Pickens · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Camden Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — CeeDee Lamb · Full

WR official #2 — Jonathan Mingo · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ryan Flournoy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — KaVontae Turpin · Availability unknown

GBWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jordan Love · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Tyrod Taylor · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — MarShawn Lloyd · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kaleb Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Pierre Strong Jr. · Practice squad

TE official #1 — Tucker Kraft · Current status: Returned To Practice

TE official #2 — Jonnu Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Mark Redman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Skyy Moore · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Released

WR official #1 — Matthew Golden · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — J. Michael Sturdivant · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Christian Watson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Released

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDALGB
Projected points24.626.0
Win probability (regulation)43.7%51.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status28 updates54 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 142 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 28 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

GB recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.7; opponent allowed 29.3.

DAL recent scoring form vs GB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 18.7.