PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

WAS at SF

Monday, October 19 · 7:15 PM CDT

WAS 19.9 — SF 31.4

SF clear edge · SF 80.1%

Projected total 51.2 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects SF clear edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 19, 6:18 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. SF: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) WAS: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)WAS 19.9 — SF 31.4Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total51.280% of simulations: 34–69
Expected margin · implied spreadSF by 11.5 · SF −11.5Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultWAS 17.1% · SF 80.1%Tie after 60 minutes: 2.9% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
WAS score9.020.031.019.9
SF score20.031.044.031.4
Combined total34.051.069.051.2
SF margin (home − away)-5.011.028.011.5

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

WAS wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ SF wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 19, 6:15 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 19, 6:15 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 19, 6:18:02 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
SF: INACTIVES PARTIAL. WAS: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
SF: 5. WAS: 5.
Record
f33d2e1f9141d447 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Brock Purdy · SF

Attempts
32.7 mean · 32.0 median · 24.0–41.0 80%
Completions
22.4 mean · 22.0 median · 16.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
252 mean · 241 median · 140–324 80%
Passing TD
2.17 mean · 87% 1+
Interceptions
0.71 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

Attempts
28.7 mean · 27.0 median · 20.0–39.0 80%
Completions
18.6 mean · 18.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
Passing yards
202 mean · 209 median · 104–298 80%
Passing TD
1.25 mean · 70% 1+
Interceptions
0.61 mean · 45% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Kaelon Black · SF

Opportunities
6.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Carries
5.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 19 median · 10–62 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–16 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
Medium

Christian McCaffrey · SF

Opportunities
18.1 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
Carries
13.5 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 53 median · 24–90 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 21 median · 7–45 80%
Total TD
46% 1+
High

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
11.3 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–16.0 80%
Carries
8.3 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
38 mean · 34 median · 18–63 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 13 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
27% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

George Kittle · SF · TE

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 50 median · 27–86 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Brayden Willis · SF · TE

Targets
1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
7% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Mike Evans · SF · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 44 median · 5–83 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
High

Malik Turner · SF · WR

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 12 median · 0–53 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 21 median · 0–51 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Treylon Burks · WAS · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 26 median · 0–54 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 49 median · 18–109 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Targets
7.3 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
63 mean · 60 median · 25–96 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

WAS 20.3 — SF 26.7

SF · 64.0% win probability

Margin
SF 6.4
Total
47.1

As of Oct 13, 2026 11:28 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

WASWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jayden Daniels · Full

QB official #2 — Marcus Mariota · Out

QB official #3 — Athan Kaliakmanis · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Full

RB official #2 — Rachaad White · Limited

RB official #3 — Player 3694 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — John Bates · Current status: Camp Absence Reported Without Official Participation Level

TE official #2 — Colson Yankoff · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Chig Okonkwo · Full

TE official #2 — Ben Sinnott · Full

WR official #1 — Dyami Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Antonio Williams · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Luke McCaffrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Terry McLaurin · Questionable

WR official #2 — Treylon Burks · Full

WR official #1 — Stefon Diggs · Out

WR official #2 — Jaylin Lane · Availability unknown

SFWeek 6 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Brock Purdy · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mac Jones · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Kurtis Rourke · Inactive for Week 5

RB official #1 — Christian McCaffrey · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Kaelon Black · Full

RB official #3 — Jordan James · Inactive for Week 4

TE official #1 — George Kittle · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #2 — Luke Farrell · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Brayden Willis · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Mike Evans · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jacob Cowing · Full

WR official #2 — Jordan Watkins · Inactive for Week 2

WR official #3 — Brandin Cooks · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonWASSF
Projected points19.931.4
Win probability (regulation)17.1%80.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status60 updates68 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

SF recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 30.7; opponent allowed 29.3.

WAS recent scoring form vs SF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.3; opponent allowed 24.3.