Caleb Williams · CHI
- Attempts
- 33.4 mean · 34.0 median · 26.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.7 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 243 mean · 251 median · 144–338 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.60 mean · 78% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 50% 1+
PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast
NE at CHI
Thursday, October 22 · 7:15 PM CDT
NE 22.4 — CHI 20.3
NE slight edge · NE 55.2%
Projected total 42.7 · Confidence: limited input
PardonMe projects
NE slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record
Game simulation
Frozen Oct 22, 6:18 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations
Limited input. CHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) NE: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.
Projected score (mean)NE 22.4 — CHI 20.3Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total42.780% of simulations: 26–60
Expected margin · implied spreadNE by 2.2 · NE −2.2Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultNE 55.2% · CHI 40.5%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.3% · overtime not modelled
Scoring range
SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
NE score10.022.035.022.4
CHI score9.020.032.020.3
Combined total26.043.060.042.7
CHI margin (home − away)-19.0-3.014.0-2.2
The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.
How this forecast was made →
- Model
- PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
- Simulations
- 4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
- Information cutoff
- Oct 22, 6:15 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 22, 6:15 PM CDT)
- Frozen
- Oct 22, 6:18:02 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
- Evidence class
- FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
- Availability evidence
- NE: INACTIVES PARTIAL. CHI: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
- Games of usage history
- NE: 6. CHI: 6.
- Record
a3b03d84e82b6381(ledger entry) · codee2eb0e80
Limitations
- Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
- Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
- Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
- Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
- Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
- Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
- The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.
One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Drake Maye · NE
- Attempts
- 30.9 mean · 33.0 median · 22.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.6 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 241 mean · 234 median · 169–340 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.85 mean · 83% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.71 mean · 50% 1+
Running back ranges
Kyle Monangai · CHI
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumD'Andre Swift · CHI
- Opportunities
- 16.8 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.8 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 63 mean · 63 median · 36–91 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 15 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 46% 1+
TreVeyon Henderson · NE
- Opportunities
- 8.5 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.3 mean · 8.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 38 mean · 37 median · 0–73 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 8 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Rhamondre Stevenson · NE
- Opportunities
- 13.2 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 50 mean · 43 median · 22–85 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 16 median · 0–38 80%
- Total TD
- 37% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Cole Kmet · CHI · TE
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighColston Loveland · CHI · TE
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumLuther Burden III · CHI · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumRome Odunze · CHI · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighJahdae Walker · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 9 median · 0–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Hunter Henry · NE · TE
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 37 median · 12–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Eli Raridon · NE · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 23 median · 11–56 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Romeo Doubs · NE · WR
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 43 median · 12–89 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
DeMario Douglas · NE · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 37 median · 12–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Other PardonMe models (comparison)
The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
NE 24.6 — CHI 22.3
NE · 60.8% win probability
- Margin
- NE 2.4
- Total
- 46.9
As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
NEWeek 7 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Drake Maye · Full
QB official #2 — Tommy DeVito · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Behren Morton · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Rhamondre Stevenson · Questionable
RB official #2 — TreVeyon Henderson · Full
RB official #3 — Corey Kiner · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Hunter Henry · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Eli Raridon · Limited
TE official #3 — Tanner Arkin · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Cameron Latu · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — DeMario Douglas · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — A.J. Brown · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown
CHIWeek 7 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Questionable
QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Out
RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Cole Kmet · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #3 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points22.420.3
Win probability (regulation)55.2%40.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates77 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 156 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 46 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
NE recent scoring form vs CHI prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 33.3; opponent allowed 22.0.
CHI recent scoring form vs NE prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 20.7.
Players
NE
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBDrake MayeFullUnknownFull20.7QBTommy DeVitoNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBBehren MortonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBRhamondre StevensonQuestionableUnknownQuestionable11.3RBTreVeyon HendersonFullUnknownFull8.1RBCorey KinerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEHunter HenryNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.8TEEli RaridonLimitedUnknownLimited6.1TETanner ArkinNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECameron LatuNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRDeMario DouglasNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.0WRKyle WilliamsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRA.J. BrownNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWREfton Chism IIINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableCHI
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBCaleb WilliamsQuestionableUnknownQuestionable20.3QBTyson BagentNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBCase KeenumCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBD'Andre SwiftNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update13.4RBKyle MonangaiOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableRBRoschon JohnsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECole KmetNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTESam RoushCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTEColston LovelandNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRLuther Burden IIINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJahdae WalkerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.1WRRome OdunzeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRKalif RaymondCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRZavion ThomasCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Drake MayeNE · #1 · floor 10.5 · upside 28.1NEQB#118.110.528.1Caleb WilliamsCHI · #3 · floor 9.1 · upside 26.2CHIQB#316.79.126.2D'Andre SwiftCHI · #8 · floor 6.4 · upside 22.6CHIRB#813.16.422.6Rhamondre StevensonNE · #15 · floor 4.7 · upside 21.9NERB#1510.94.721.9TreVeyon HendersonNE · #33 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.4NERB#336.60.016.4Kyle MonangaiCHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CHIRB————Romeo DoubsNE · #35 · floor 2.2 · upside 18.3NEWR#357.82.218.3DeMario DouglasNE · #37 · floor 2.3 · upside 17.2NEWR#376.82.317.2Jahdae WalkerCHI · #64 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.3CHIWR#643.00.011.3Luther Burden IIICHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CHIWR————Rome OdunzeCHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CHIWR————Hunter HenryNE · #20 · floor 2.2 · upside 15.0NETE#206.72.215.0Eli RaridonNE · #21 · floor 2.1 · upside 12.8NETE#216.32.112.8Cole KmetCHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CHITE————Colston LovelandCHI · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —CHITE————PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
These comparisons use the legacy model, not the PA-1 simulation above. PA-1 has not been validated against sportsbook lines, so no edge is claimed.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Caleb Williams CHI · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Questionable
- Projected workload
- 33.0 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 20.3 · 80% 9.6–31.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
D'Andre Swift CHI · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 16.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 13.4 · 80% 5.5–21.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyle Monangai CHI · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Out
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Luther Burden III CHI · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 39% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Rome Odunze CHI · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 96% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Jahdae Walker CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 13% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.1 · 80% 0.0–12.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cole Kmet CHI · TE
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 74% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Colston Loveland CHI · TE
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Drake Maye NE · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 30.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 20.7 · 80% 10.0–31.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rhamondre Stevenson NE · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- Questionable
- Projected workload
- 12.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 11.3 · 80% 3.4–19.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
TreVeyon Henderson NE · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 24% offense
- Availability
- Questionable
- Projected workload
- 10.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.1 · 80% 0.2–16.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Romeo Doubs NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 3% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DeMario Douglas NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 59% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Hunter Henry NE · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 76% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.6–13.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eli Raridon NE · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 57% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CHI offensive TD state2.4 expected8.7% zero · 44.2% 3+
NE offensive TD state2.9 expected5.7% zero · 54.7% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.4 mean · 1.0–10.0 80%Net yards 23 mean · 1–65 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 5.3 mean · 3.0–8.0 80%Net yards 31 mean · 17–54 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
CHI
89 current depth players
75 with prior usage context
24 prior high-snap players
NE
103 current depth players
81 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 83b129395c82402c69ecbd3d5b319e8713532699fc4a128b073d15a91137b753
Prediction a3b03d84e82b6381321212458febc29b44c78c77141ed17b8425ba4e8bf7f579
Week 999566246de42cafd748847849e9b10c6cef3b02f92521b6a4d4873e86423600
As of 2026-10-22 23:18:02.000000
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): limited input