PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

PIT at NO

Sunday, October 25 · 8:30 AM CDT

PIT 22.9 — NO 21.3

PIT slight edge · PIT 52.5%

Projected total 44.2 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects PIT slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 7:33 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. NO: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) PIT: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)PIT 22.9 — NO 21.3Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total44.280% of simulations: 28–61
Expected margin · implied spreadPIT by 1.6 · PIT −1.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultPIT 52.5% · NO 42.9%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.7% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
PIT score10.023.035.022.9
NO score10.021.034.021.3
Combined total28.044.061.044.2
NO margin (home − away)-18.0-1.015.0-1.6

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

PIT wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ NO wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 7:30 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 7:30 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 7:33:00 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
NO: INACTIVES PARTIAL. PIT: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
NO: 6. PIT: 6.
Record
60f419d4025ca2fd (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Tyler Shough · NO

Attempts
31.6 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–45.0 80%
Completions
20.7 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
219 mean · 229 median · 107–309 80%
Passing TD
1.52 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.70 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Aaron Rodgers · PIT

Attempts
34.0 mean · 35.0 median · 23.0–45.0 80%
Completions
21.4 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
219 mean · 218 median · 150–283 80%
Passing TD
1.46 mean · 75% 1+
Interceptions
0.71 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Alvin Kamara · NO

Opportunities
8.9 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Carries
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 26 median · 9–53 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
High

Kendre Miller · NO

Opportunities
11.5 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.1 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 30 median · 18–63 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
Medium

Eli Heidenreich · PIT

Opportunities
3.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Carries
3.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
19 mean · 12 median · 0–52 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
16% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jaylen Warren · PIT

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Noah Fant · NO · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 8 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Juwan Johnson · NO · TE

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 45 median · 12–79 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Jalen Moreno-Cropper · NO · WR

Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Chris Olave · NO · WR

Targets
8.1 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
76 mean · 81 median · 29–120 80%
Receiving TD
38% 1+
High

Devaughn Vele · NO · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE

Targets
5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 41 median · 21–61 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Darnell Washington · PIT · TE

Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 22 median · 11–44 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

DK Metcalf · PIT · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 37 median · 2–85 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Ben Skowronek · PIT · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Roman Wilson · PIT · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 40 median · 13–79 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

13 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

PIT 23.4 — NO 22.7

PIT · 56.0% win probability

Margin
PIT 0.7
Total
46.0

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

PITWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Aaron Rodgers · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Mason Rudolph · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Will Howard · Inactive for Week 4

QB official #4 — Drew Allar · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Jaylen Warren · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Rico Dowdle · Limited

RB official #3 — Eli Heidenreich · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #4 — Travis Homer · Released

RB official #5 — Lew Nichols · Waived

TE official #1 — Pat Freiermuth · Questionable

TE official #1 — Darnell Washington · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #2 — Robert Tonyan · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Ben Skowronek · Out

WR official #1 — DK Metcalf · Questionable

WR official #2 — Kaden Wetjen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Germie Bernard · Availability unknown

NOWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tyler Shough · Full

QB official #2 — Spencer Rattler · Full

QB official #3 — Zach Wilson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Alvin Kamara · Limited

RB official #2 — Kendre Miller · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — CJ Donaldson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Juwan Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Fant · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Oscar Delp · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #4 — Treyton Welch · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Chris Olave · Questionable

WR official #2 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #1 — Devaughn Vele · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonPITNO
Projected points22.921.3
Win probability (regulation)52.5%42.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates57 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 135 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PIT recent scoring form vs NO prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 28.0; opponent allowed 31.7.

NO recent scoring form vs PIT prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 22.7.