Tua Tagovailoa · ATL
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Medium uncertainty
PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast
SF at ATL
Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT
SF 26.3 — ATL 21.7
SF edge · SF 61.5%
Projected total 48.0 · Confidence: limited input
PardonMe projects
SF edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record
Game simulation
Frozen Oct 25, 11:03 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations
Limited input. ATL: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) SF: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.
Projected score (mean)SF 26.3 — ATL 21.7Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total48.080% of simulations: 31–65
Expected margin · implied spreadSF by 4.6 · SF −4.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultSF 61.5% · ATL 34.7%Tie after 60 minutes: 3.8% · overtime not modelled
Scoring range
SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
SF score14.026.039.026.3
ATL score10.021.034.021.7
Combined total31.048.065.048.0
ATL margin (home − away)-23.0-4.013.0-4.6
The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.
How this forecast was made →
- Model
- PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
- Simulations
- 4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
- Information cutoff
- Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
- Frozen
- Oct 25, 11:03:02 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
- Evidence class
- FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
- Availability evidence
- SF: INACTIVES PARTIAL. ATL: DESIGNATIONS ONLY.
- Games of usage history
- SF: 6. ATL: 6.
- Record
3d2f8a289351e015(ledger entry) · codee2eb0e80
Limitations
- Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
- Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
- Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
- Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
- Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
- Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
- The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.
One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Brock Purdy · SF
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Medium uncertaintyRunning back ranges
Bijan Robinson · ATL
- Opportunities
- 23.3 mean · 23.0 median · 12.0–32.0 80%
- Carries
- 18.1 mean · 18.0 median · 9.0–26.0 80%
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 82 mean · 82 median · 34–129 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 25 median · 7–50 80%
- Total TD
- 48% 1+
Kaelon Black · SF
- Opportunities
- 7.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 30 mean · 21 median · 10–60 80%
- Receptions
- 0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 21% 1+
Christian McCaffrey · SF
- Opportunities
- 18.6 mean · 19.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.7 mean · 13.5 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 55 mean · 53 median · 23–89 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 23 median · 7–48 80%
- Total TD
- 46% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 25 median · 0–82 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Receiving TD
- 9% 1+
Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 30 median · 15–59 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Drake London · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 9.0 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 91 mean · 85 median · 37–148 80%
- Receiving TD
- 38% 1+
Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighGeorge Kittle · SF · TE
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 53 mean · 52 median · 28–78 80%
- Receiving TD
- 30% 1+
Brayden Willis · SF · TE
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Insufficient EvidenceMike Evans · SF · WR
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighMalik Turner · SF · WR
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 12 median · 0–53 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
9 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Other PardonMe models (comparison)
The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
SF 22.8 — ATL 24.7
ATL · 52.1% win probability
- Margin
- ATL 1.9
- Total
- 47.5
As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
SFWeek 7 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.
WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.
WR: Official depth is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Brock Purdy · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Mac Jones · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Kurtis Rourke · Inactive for Week 7
RB official #1 — Christian McCaffrey · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Kaelon Black · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Jordan James · Inactive for Week 4
TE official #1 — George Kittle · Reserve status: Active Pup
TE official #2 — Luke Farrell · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Brayden Willis · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Mike Evans · Inactive for Week 7
WR official #2 — Jacob Cowing · Full
WR official #2 — Jordan Watkins · Inactive for Week 2
WR official #3 — Brandin Cooks · Availability unknown
ATLWeek 7 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.
RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.
TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.
TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.
WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.
WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.
WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Full
QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2
QB official #3 — Andy Dalton · Inactive for Week 7
QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 6
RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Brian Robinson Jr. · Inactive for Week 7
TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Inactive for Week 7
WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Drake London · Limited
WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points26.321.7
Win probability (regulation)61.5%34.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status68 updates43 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 120 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
ATL recent scoring form vs SF prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 30.3; opponent allowed 20.0.
SF recent scoring form vs ATL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 26.3; opponent allowed 28.3.
Players
SF
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBBrock PurdyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBMac JonesNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBKurtis RourkeInactive for Week 7UnknownInactive for Week 7Projection unavailableRBChristian McCaffreyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update13.5RBKaelon BlackNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.4RBJordan JamesInactive for Week 4UnknownInactive for Week 4Projection unavailableTEGeorge KittleReserve status: Active PupUnknownReserve status: Active Pup9.5TELuke FarrellNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEBrayden WillisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRMike EvansInactive for Week 7UnknownInactive for Week 7Projection unavailableWRJacob CowingFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRJordan WatkinsInactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 2Projection unavailableWRBrandin CooksNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableATL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBMichael Penix Jr.FullUnknownFullProjection unavailableQBTua TagovailoaInactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 2Projection unavailableQBAndy DaltonInactive for Week 7UnknownInactive for Week 7Projection unavailableQBJack StrandInactive for Week 6UnknownInactive for Week 6Projection unavailableRBBijan RobinsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update17.1RBBrian Robinson Jr.Inactive for Week 7UnknownInactive for Week 7Projection unavailableTEKyle Pitts Sr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.6TEAustin HooperNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECharlie WoernerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.1WROlamide ZaccheausInactive for Week 7UnknownInactive for Week 7Projection unavailableWRZachariah BranchNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJahan DotsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.9WRDrake LondonLimitedUnknownLimited15.9WRChris BlairPractice squadUnknownPractice squadProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Tua TagovailoaATL · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —ATLQB————Brock PurdySF · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —SFQB————Bijan RobinsonATL · #1 · floor 6.8 · upside 30.2ATLRB#118.36.830.2Christian McCaffreySF · #6 · floor 5.4 · upside 26.2SFRB#614.45.426.2Kaelon BlackSF · #33 · floor 1.3 · upside 13.2SFRB#333.61.313.2Drake LondonATL · #4 · floor 6.7 · upside 29.1ATLWR#417.06.729.1Jahan DotsonATL · #41 · floor 2.5 · upside 14.5ATLWR#417.52.514.5Malik TurnerSF · #52 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.6SFWR#523.50.011.6Olamide ZaccheausATL · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —ATLWR————Mike EvansSF · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —SFWR————George KittleSF · #6 · floor 4.8 · upside 19.8SFTE#611.44.819.8Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL · #16 · floor 0.0 · upside 19.0ATLTE#166.60.019.0Charlie WoernerATL · #38 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.0ATLTE#381.60.06.0Brayden WillisSF · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —SFTE————PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
These comparisons use the legacy model, not the PA-1 simulation above. PA-1 has not been validated against sportsbook lines, so no edge is claimed.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Tua Tagovailoa ATL · QB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Inactive for Week 2
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Bijan Robinson ATL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 78% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 20.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 17.1 · 80% 9.2–25.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahan Dotson ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 85% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.9 · 80% 0.2–15.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drake London ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 8.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 15.9 · 80% 8.2–23.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 55% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 78% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.6 · 80% 0.4–12.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Woerner ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 29% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.1 · 80% 0.0–10.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Purdy SF · QB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Christian McCaffrey SF · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 85% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 16.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 13.5 · 80% 5.7–21.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kaelon Black SF · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 8.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 6.4 · 80% 0.0–14.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Evans SF · WR
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- Questionable
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Malik Turner SF · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 5% offense
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.7 · 80% 0.0–11.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
George Kittle SF · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Active Pup
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 3.3–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brayden Willis SF · TE
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 2% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
ATL offensive TD state2.3 expected9.6% zero · 41.6% 3+
SF offensive TD state2.5 expected8.0% zero · 46.1% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
No confirmed rushing range yet.
No confirmed rushing range yet.
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
ATL
92 current depth players
75 with prior usage context
28 prior high-snap players
SF
57 current depth players
45 with prior usage context
17 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature d5fe8fb1009e3be81beaebd9ee4992cff502b7101af42f1bb9e1c2c4162d0003
Prediction 3d2f8a289351e0155f5ebf2eca5682e19366263debbee5f4457ad4d23050ef8c
Week 999566246de42cafd748847849e9b10c6cef3b02f92521b6a4d4873e86423600
As of 2026-10-25 16:03:02.000000
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): limited input