PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

CLE at TEN

Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT

CLE 19.4 — TEN 16.1

CLE slight edge · CLE 57.6%

Projected total 35.5 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects CLE slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 11:03 AM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) TEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)CLE 19.4 — TEN 16.1Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total35.580% of simulations: 20–52
Expected margin · implied spreadCLE by 3.3 · CLE −3.3Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultCLE 57.6% · TEN 37.7%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.7% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
CLE score7.019.031.019.4
TEN score6.016.028.016.1
Combined total20.035.052.035.5
TEN margin (home − away)-20.0-3.014.0-3.3

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

CLE wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ TEN wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 11:03:25 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
CLE: INACTIVES PARTIAL. TEN: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
CLE: 6. TEN: 6.
Record
cd94574eada4b5ef (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Deshaun Watson · CLE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Cam Ward · TEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Quinshon Judkins · CLE

Opportunities
16.3 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Carries
13.6 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
44 mean · 43 median · 23–68 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
Medium

Michael Carter · TEN

Opportunities
10.8 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–20.0 80%
Carries
8.0 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 32 median · 17–63 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 0–44 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Tony Pollard · TEN

Opportunities
17.6 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–23.0 80%
Carries
15.7 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–21.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 60 median · 27–90 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 30 median · 1–71 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–21 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Denzel Boston · CLE · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
65 mean · 55 median · 20–107 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
Medium

Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 38 median · 13–64 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR

Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 20 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Medium

Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 14 median · 6–38 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 30 median · 0–79 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR

Targets
6.4 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 43 median · 0–83 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Carnell Tate · TEN · WR

Targets
6.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 54 median · 18–102 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Medium

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CLE 20.0 — TEN 20.6

TEN · 47.8% win probability

Margin
TEN 0.6
Total
40.7

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CLEWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Deshaun Watson · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Shedeur Sanders · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Taylen Green · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Carsen Ryan · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown

TENWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Cam Ward · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mitchell Trubisky · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Tony Pollard · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyjae Spears · Questionable

RB official #2 — Nicholas Singleton · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Michael Carter · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — Julius Chestnut · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Gunnar Helm · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Daniel Bellinger · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — David Martin-Robinson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Kylen Granson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Calvin Ridley · Questionable

WR official #2 — Chimere Dike · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Carnell Tate · Questionable

WR official #2 — Elic Ayomanor · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Wan'Dale Robinson · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCLETEN
Projected points19.416.1
Win probability (regulation)57.6%37.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates43 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 128 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CLE recent scoring form vs TEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 23.3.

TEN recent scoring form vs CLE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.7; opponent allowed 17.0.