PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

IND at MIN

Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT

IND 19.0 — MIN 24.1

MIN edge · MIN 63.5%

Projected total 43.1 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects MIN edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 11:03 AM CDT · 56 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. IND: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) MIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)IND 19.0 — MIN 24.1Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total43.180% of simulations: 27–60
Expected margin · implied spreadMIN by 5.2 · MIN −5.2Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultIND 31.7% · MIN 63.5%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.9% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
IND score7.019.031.019.0
MIN score13.024.037.024.1
Combined total27.043.060.043.1
MIN margin (home − away)-11.06.021.05.2

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

IND wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ MIN wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 11:03:48 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
IND: INACTIVES PARTIAL. MIN: DESIGNATIONS ONLY.
Games of usage history
IND: 6. MIN: 5.
Record
e3a004965b0fa513 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Daniel Jones · IND

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Kyler Murray · MIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Carries
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
24 mean · 19 median · 0–57 80%
Receptions
0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
18% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
20.3 mean · 22.0 median · 11.0–27.0 80%
Carries
17.1 mean · 18.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 61 median · 26–87 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
44% 1+
High

Demond Claiborne · MIN

Opportunities
5.3 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–14.0 80%
Carries
4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
24 mean · 21 median · 0–58 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 0 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
19% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN

Opportunities
20.0 mean · 21.0 median · 11.0–29.0 80%
Carries
16.3 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 54 median · 26–91 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
6.4 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 36 median · 12–73 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Laquon Treadwell · IND · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 37 median · 19–74 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 48 median · 22–77 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Ben Yurosek · MIN · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 17 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jordan Addison · MIN · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 45 median · 18–86 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR

Targets
7.9 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
60 mean · 63 median · 27–99 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

IND 20.3 — MIN 23.4

MIN · 54.6% win probability

Margin
MIN 3.1
Total
43.7

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

INDWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Full

QB official #2 — Anthony Richardson Sr. · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Riley Leonard · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Out

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Did not participate

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Player 1204 · Questionable

TE official #4 — Pharaoh Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Josh Downs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Anthony Gould · Out

WR official #1 — Keenan Allen · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ashton Dulin · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

MINWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kyler Murray · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Carson Wentz · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Max Brosmer · Waived

RB official #1 — Aaron Jones Sr. · Limited

RB official #1 — Jordan Mason · Questionable

RB official #2 — Demond Claiborne · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — DeeJay Dallas · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — T.J. Hockenson · Full

TE official #2 — Gavin Bartholomew · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Justin Jefferson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tai Felton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jordan Addison · Full

WR official #1 — Jauan Jennings · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Myles Price · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonINDMIN
Projected points19.024.1
Win probability (regulation)31.7%63.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status30 updates66 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 51 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

IND recent scoring form vs MIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.0; opponent allowed 13.0.

MIN recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 24.3.