PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

MIA at NYJ

Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT

MIA 21.2 — NYJ 21.9

Nearly even · NYJ 50.5%

Projected total 43.0 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 11:04 AM CDT · 56 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. MIA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) NYJ: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)MIA 21.2 — NYJ 21.9Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total43.080% of simulations: 27–61
Expected margin · implied spreadNYJ by 0.7 · NYJ −0.7Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultMIA 44.7% · NYJ 50.5%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.9% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
MIA score10.020.033.021.2
NYJ score10.021.034.021.9
Combined total27.043.061.043.0
NYJ margin (home − away)-16.11.017.00.7

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

MIA wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ NYJ wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 11:04:12 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
MIA: DESIGNATIONS ONLY. NYJ: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
MIA: 5. NYJ: 6.
Record
2aa05e83ab434b4e (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Malik Willis · MIA

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Low uncertainty

Geno Smith · NYJ

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Ollie Gordon II · MIA

Opportunities
14.9 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Carries
12.9 mean · 11.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
52 mean · 45 median · 26–85 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
Medium

Carlos Washington Jr. · MIA

Opportunities
12.3 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
Carries
9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
42 mean · 37 median · 13–78 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 10 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Braelon Allen · NYJ

Opportunities
18.1 mean · 15.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
Carries
14.7 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
49 mean · 41 median · 25–84 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 15 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
Medium

Breece Hall · NYJ

Opportunities
17.2 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–22.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–20.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
58 mean · 56 median · 33–87 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 16 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Chris Bell · MIA · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 29 median · 0–72 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR

Targets
7.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
65 mean · 58 median · 29–101 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 14 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 10 median · 0–41 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Malik McClain · NYJ · WR

Targets
2.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 13 median · 0–63 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 28 median · 0–79 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

10 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

MIA 18.9 — NYJ 21.8

NYJ · 55.0% win probability

Margin
NYJ 3.0
Total
40.7

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

MIAWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Malik Willis · Full

QB official #2 — Kyle McCord · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Ollie Gordon II · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jaylen Wright · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Player 2836 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Greg Dulcich · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Will Kacmarek · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Seydou Traore · Full

TE official #4 — Justin Joly · Out

WR official #1 — Malik Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kevin Coleman Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Chris Bell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Tolbert · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Caleb Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Player 1140 · Availability unknown

NYJWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Geno Smith · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cade Klubnik · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Breece Hall · Questionable

RB official #2 — Braelon Allen · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Isaiah Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Kene Nwangwu · Questionable

TE official #1 — Mason Taylor · Full

TE official #2 — Kenyon Sadiq · Questionable

TE official #1 — Jeremy Ruckert · Limited

TE official #2 — Jelani Woods · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Adonai Mitchell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Isaiah Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Garrett Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malik McClain · Waived

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonMIANYJ
Projected points21.221.9
Win probability (regulation)44.7%50.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates73 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 131 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 53 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NYJ recent scoring form vs MIA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 16.0; opponent allowed 23.3.

MIA recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 14.7; opponent allowed 20.3.