PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

TB at CAR

Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT

TB 21.5 — CAR 21.9

Nearly even · CAR 49.6%

Projected total 43.4 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 11:04 AM CDT · 55 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. CAR: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) TB: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)TB 21.5 — CAR 21.9Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total43.480% of simulations: 27–60
Expected margin · implied spreadCAR by 0.3 · CAR −0.3Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultTB 46.3% · CAR 49.6%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.1% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
TB score10.021.034.021.5
CAR score10.021.534.021.9
Combined total27.043.060.043.4
CAR margin (home − away)-16.00.016.00.3

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

TB wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ CAR wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 11:04:38 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
TB: INACTIVES PARTIAL. CAR: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
TB: 6. CAR: 5.
Record
b4c847605ae5b021 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Bryce Young · CAR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Baker Mayfield · TB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

AJ Dillon · CAR

Opportunities
6.2 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Carries
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
25 mean · 21 median · 0–54 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 0 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
19% 1+
High

Chuba Hubbard · CAR

Opportunities
22.4 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–32.0 80%
Carries
18.4 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
Targets
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
68 mean · 59 median · 37–111 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 17 median · 6–42 80%
Total TD
46% 1+
High

Bucky Irving · TB

Opportunities
20.8 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–27.0 80%
Carries
17.4 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
63 mean · 61 median · 35–92 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
41% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mitchell Evans · CAR · TE

Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–28 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Tommy Tremble · CAR · TE

Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 30 median · 9–50 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Jalen Coker · CAR · WR

Targets
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
71 mean · 65 median · 39–115 80%
Receiving TD
37% 1+
Medium

Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · WR

Targets
8.4 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
78 mean · 77 median · 32–137 80%
Receiving TD
41% 1+
Medium

Brycen Tremayne · CAR · WR

Targets
3.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 23 median · 9–61 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Payne Durham · TB · TE

Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Cade Otton · TB · TE

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 29 median · 10–57 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Emeka Egbuka · TB · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Chris Godwin Jr. · TB · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 46 median · 23–79 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Ted Hurst III · TB · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 27 median · 0–69 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TB 19.7 — CAR 24.4

CAR · 59.8% win probability

Margin
CAR 4.7
Total
44.1

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TBWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Baker Mayfield · Questionable

QB official #2 — Jalon Daniels · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Bucky Irving · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kenny Gainwell · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Sean Tucker · Full

TE official #1 — Cade Otton · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #2 — Payne Durham · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Ko Kieft · Did not participate

TE official #4 — Bauer Sharp · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Emeka Egbuka · Out

WR official #2 — Tez Johnson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ted Hurst III · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Chris Godwin Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kameron Johnson · Availability unknown

CARWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bryce Young · Full

QB official #2 — Kenny Pickett · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Haynes King · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chuba Hubbard · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Trevor Etienne · Questionable

RB official #3 — AJ Dillon · Full

TE official #1 — Tommy Tremble · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mitchell Evans · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Darren Waller · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Ja'Tavion Sanders · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Feleipe Franks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Coker · Full

WR official #2 — David Moore · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Tetairoa McMillan · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brycen Tremayne · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — John Metchie III · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTBCAR
Projected points21.521.9
Win probability (regulation)46.3%49.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status75 updates61 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 145 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 49 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CAR recent scoring form vs TB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 19.7.

TB recent scoring form vs CAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 20.3.