PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

CIN at BAL

Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT

CIN 23.3 — BAL 24.9

BAL slight edge · BAL 53.0%

Projected total 48.2 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects BAL slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT · 55 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. BAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) CIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)CIN 23.3 — BAL 24.9Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total48.280% of simulations: 32–65
Expected margin · implied spreadBAL by 1.6 · BAL −1.6Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultCIN 42.8% · BAL 53.0%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.2% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
CIN score12.023.035.023.3
BAL score13.024.037.024.9
Combined total32.047.065.048.2
BAL margin (home − away)-14.02.017.01.6

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

CIN wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ BAL wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 11:05:10 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
BAL: DESIGNATIONS ONLY. CIN: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
BAL: 6. CIN: 5.
Record
853d755c44a94172 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Lamar Jackson · BAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Joe Burrow · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Derrick Henry · BAL

Opportunities
23.5 mean · 23.0 median · 14.0–31.0 80%
Carries
22.1 mean · 22.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
98 mean · 96 median · 49–150 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
57% 1+
High

Justice Hill · BAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Chase Brown · CIN

Opportunities
15.4 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Carries
11.6 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
46 mean · 45 median · 21–71 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 19 median · 6–39 80%
Total TD
38% 1+
High

Samaje Perine · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mark Andrews · BAL · TE

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 36 median · 19–55 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Josh Cuevas · BAL · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 10 median · 0–43 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 38 median · 12–76 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Zay Flowers · BAL · WR

Targets
9.3 mean · 9.0 median · 7.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
100 mean · 94 median · 64–152 80%
Receiving TD
43% 1+
High

Devontez Walker · BAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Drew Sample · CIN · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 14 median · 0–21 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR

Targets
7.3 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
55 mean · 60 median · 14–96 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
High

Tee Higgins · CIN · WR

Targets
8.3 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
80 mean · 74 median · 30–132 80%
Receiving TD
44% 1+
High

Colbie Young · CIN · WR

Targets
1.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 0 median · 0–54 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CIN 21.5 — BAL 23.9

BAL · 52.7% win probability

Margin
BAL 2.4
Total
45.4

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CINWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

HB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

HB official #1 — Chase Brown · Availability unknown

HB official #2 — Samaje Perine · Availability unknown

HB official #3 — Tahj Brooks · Availability unknown

QB official #1 — Joe Burrow · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joe Flacco · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Drew Sample · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mike Gesicki · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tanner Hudson · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Erick All Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jack Endries · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ja'Marr Chase · Questionable

WR official #1 — Dohnte Meyers · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tee Higgins · Questionable

WR official #2 — Colbie Young · Questionable

BALWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tyler Huntley · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Vannett · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full

TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Limited

WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ja'Kobi Lane · Questionable

WR official #3 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCINBAL
Projected points23.324.9
Win probability (regulation)42.8%53.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status37 updates56 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 109 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs BAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 18.0.

BAL recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.3; opponent allowed 25.3.