C.J. Stroud · HOU
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Medium uncertainty
PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast
NYG at HOU
Sunday, October 25 · 12:00 PM CDT
NYG 17.7 — HOU 24.5
HOU edge · HOU 68.2%
Projected total 42.2 · Confidence: limited input
PardonMe projects
HOU edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record
Game simulation
Frozen Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT · 54 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations
Limited input. HOU: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) NYG: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.
Projected score (mean)NYG 17.7 — HOU 24.5Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total42.280% of simulations: 26–60
Expected margin · implied spreadHOU by 6.8 · HOU −6.8Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultNYG 27.8% · HOU 68.2%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.0% · overtime not modelled
Scoring range
SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
NYG score7.017.030.017.7
HOU score13.024.037.024.5
Combined total26.041.060.042.2
HOU margin (home − away)-10.07.023.06.8
The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.
How this forecast was made →
- Model
- PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
- Simulations
- 4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
- Information cutoff
- Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 11:00 AM CDT)
- Frozen
- Oct 25, 11:05:39 AM CDT · on time · before kickoff
- Evidence class
- FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
- Availability evidence
- HOU: INACTIVES PARTIAL. NYG: DESIGNATIONS ONLY.
- Games of usage history
- HOU: 6. NYG: 6.
- Record
a411c4076fdcd4f0(ledger entry) · codee2eb0e80
Limitations
- Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
- Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
- Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
- Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
- Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
- Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
- The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.
One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Jameis Winston · NYG
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Medium uncertaintyRunning back ranges
Woody Marks · HOU
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
MediumDavid Montgomery · HOU
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
HighDevin Singletary · NYG
- Opportunities
- 7.5 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 28 mean · 26 median · 8–50 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 25% 1+
Cam Skattebo · NYG
- Opportunities
- 12.5 mean · 13.0 median · 2.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.6 mean · 11.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 49 median · 12–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 15 median · 0–34 80%
- Total TD
- 37% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Foster Moreau · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 25 median · 8–44 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 29 median · 10–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Lewis Bond · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 35 median · 10–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Nico Collins · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 8.3 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 90 mean · 84 median · 35–150 80%
- Receiving TD
- 38% 1+
Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 41 median · 14–82 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Theo Johnson · NYG · TE
- Targets
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 24 median · 0–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Isaiah Likely · NYG · TE
- Targets
- 8.9 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
- Receptions
- 6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 64 mean · 56 median · 26–108 80%
- Receiving TD
- 38% 1+
Malachi Fields · NYG · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 30 mean · 24 median · 0–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Darnell Mooney · NYG · WR
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 22 median · 0–46 80%
- Receiving TD
- 12% 1+
Malik Nabers · NYG · WR
- Targets
- 7.9 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 70 mean · 59 median · 17–141 80%
- Receiving TD
- 36% 1+
12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Other PardonMe models (comparison)
The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
NYG 22.0 — HOU 25.9
HOU · 57.1% win probability
- Margin
- HOU 3.8
- Total
- 47.9
As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
NYGWeek 7 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.
RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.
TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.
WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.
WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — J.J. McCarthy · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Jameis Winston · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — Cam Skattebo · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Devin Singletary · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Did not participate
TE official #1 — Isaiah Likely · Full
TE official #2 — Theo Johnson · Doubtful
TE official #3 — Chris Manhertz · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Thomas Fidone II · Full
WR official #1 — Darnell Mooney · Full
WR official #2 — Charlie Jones · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Malik Nabers · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Malachi Fields · Availability unknown
HOUWeek 7 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Official depth needs a current update.
RB: Official depth needs a current update.
TE: Official depth needs a current update.
WR: Official depth needs a current update.
WR: Official depth needs a current update.
WR: Official depth needs a current update.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — C.J. Stroud · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Davis Mills · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — David Montgomery · Out
RB official #2 — Woody Marks · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Dare Ogunbowale · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Dalton Schultz · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Foster Moreau · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Marlin Klein · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Cade Stover · Availability unknown
TE official #5 — Brevin Jordan · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Nico Collins · Limited
WR official #2 — Player 20 · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Xavier Hutchinson · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Kayshon Boutte · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jaylin Noel · Reserve status: Active Nfi
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points17.724.5
Win probability (regulation)27.8%68.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status59 updates49 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 130 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 46 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
NYG recent scoring form vs HOU prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 30.0; opponent allowed 22.7.
HOU recent scoring form vs NYG prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 30.0; opponent allowed 28.3.
Players
NYG
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBJ.J. McCarthyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBJameis WinstonCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBCam SkatteboNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update10.6RBDevin SingletaryNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.5RBTyrone Tracy Jr.Did not participateUnknownDid not participateProjection unavailableTEIsaiah LikelyFullUnknownFull13.1TETheo JohnsonDoubtfulUnknownDoubtful4.9TEChris ManhertzNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEThomas Fidone IIFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRDarnell MooneyFullUnknownFull6.5WRCharlie JonesNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRMalik NabersNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update15.0WRMalachi FieldsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.8HOU
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBC.J. StroudNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBDavis MillsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBDavid MontgomeryOutUnknownOutProjection unavailableRBWoody MarksNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBDare OgunbowaleNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEDalton SchultzNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.2TEFoster MoreauCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective6.2TEMarlin KleinNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTECade StoverNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEBrevin JordanNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRNico CollinsLimitedUnknownLimited15.7WRPlayer 20No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRXavier HutchinsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update10.2WRKayshon BoutteNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJaylin NoelReserve status: Active NfiUnknownReserve status: Active NfiProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
C.J. StroudHOU · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —HOUQB————Jameis WinstonNYG · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —NYGQB————Cam SkatteboNYG · #15 · floor 1.8 · upside 19.9NYGRB#1510.31.819.9Devin SingletaryNYG · #29 · floor 1.5 · upside 13.8NYGRB#295.41.513.8Woody MarksHOU · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —HOURB————David MontgomeryHOU · Rank unavailable · floor — · upside —HOURB————Nico CollinsHOU · #5 · floor 6.5 · upside 29.3HOUWR#516.16.529.3Malik NabersNYG · #12 · floor 3.6 · upside 29.1NYGWR#1213.23.629.1Xavier HutchinsonHOU · #32 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.5HOUWR#327.12.415.5Lewis BondHOU · #35 · floor 2.0 · upside 17.7HOUWR#356.02.017.7Malachi FieldsNYG · #46 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.7NYGWR#464.50.013.7Darnell MooneyNYG · #50 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.8NYGWR#504.20.010.8Isaiah LikelyNYG · #2 · floor 6.5 · upside 26.8NYGTE#214.66.526.8Dalton SchultzHOU · #11 · floor 2.0 · upside 17.9HOUTE#116.02.017.9Foster MoreauHOU · #19 · floor 1.8 · upside 11.6HOUTE#195.61.811.6Theo JohnsonNYG · #23 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.7NYGTE#234.40.011.7PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
These comparisons use the legacy model, not the PA-1 simulation above. PA-1 has not been validated against sportsbook lines, so no edge is claimed.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
C.J. Stroud HOU · QB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
David Montgomery HOU · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 14% offense
- Availability
- Did not participate
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Woody Marks HOU · RB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 78% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Nico Collins HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 8.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 15.7 · 80% 8.0–23.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Xavier Hutchinson HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 54% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.2 · 80% 2.5–17.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Lewis Bond HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 17% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dalton Schultz HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- Limited
- Projected workload
- 4.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.2 · 80% 2.0–14.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Foster Moreau HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jameis Winston NYG · QB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Cam Skattebo NYG · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 8% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 14.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.6 · 80% 2.7–18.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Devin Singletary NYG · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.5 · 80% 0.0–15.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Darnell Mooney NYG · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 36% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 4.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.0–14.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malik Nabers NYG · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 86% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 8.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 15.0 · 80% 7.3–22.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malachi Fields NYG · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 94% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.0–14.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Isaiah Likely NYG · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 91% offense
- Availability
- Full
- Projected workload
- 8.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 13.1 · 80% 6.9–19.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Theo Johnson NYG · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 48% offense
- Availability
- Out
- Projected workload
- 2.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.9 · 80% 0.0–11.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
HOU offensive TD state2.4 expected9.3% zero · 42.3% 3+
NYG offensive TD state2.3 expected9.8% zero · 40.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueNRG Stadium · Houston, TX
Roof typeRetractable
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastExterior Supported1.0 hours before kickoff
Retractable roof state Unknown; supported exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
No confirmed rushing range yet.
No confirmed rushing range yet.
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
HOU
65 current depth players
57 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
NYG
80 current depth players
73 with prior usage context
24 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature b1623c637871994395b2100d8475c0ea662bea3bea1efda1e403e746409afd99
Prediction a411c4076fdcd4f06ff88c1f6bc74f97e12ce8bceab598a80ff7808ccc211510
Week 999566246de42cafd748847849e9b10c6cef3b02f92521b6a4d4873e86423600
As of 2026-10-25 16:05:39.000000
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): limited input