PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

DEN at ARI

Sunday, October 25 · 3:05 PM CDT

DEN 22.2 — ARI 19.6

DEN slight edge · DEN 55.6%

Projected total 41.8 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects DEN slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 2:08 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. ARI: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) DEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)DEN 22.2 — ARI 19.6Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total41.880% of simulations: 26–59
Expected margin · implied spreadDEN by 2.6 · DEN −2.7Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultDEN 55.6% · ARI 39.8%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.7% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
DEN score10.022.034.022.2
ARI score9.020.031.019.6
Combined total26.041.059.041.8
ARI margin (home − away)-19.0-3.014.0-2.6

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

DEN wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ ARI wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 2:05 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 2:05 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 2:08:00 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
ARI: INACTIVES PARTIAL. DEN: DESIGNATIONS ONLY.
Games of usage history
ARI: 6. DEN: 6.
Record
d519fb638e73f8c2 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Bo Nix · DEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
Carries
7.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
27 mean · 23 median · 7–52 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
23% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

J.K. Dobbins · DEN

Opportunities
15.6 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
Carries
14.2 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 55 median · 26–80 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 6 median · 0–19 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
High

RJ Harvey · DEN

Opportunities
8.4 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Carries
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
26 mean · 25 median · 0–50 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–37 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 20 median · 8–50 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
9.0 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 63 median · 21–89 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 34 median · 12–80 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Jalen Brooks · ARI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Michael Wilson · ARI · WR

Targets
8.1 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 53 median · 15–114 80%
Receiving TD
37% 1+
High

Evan Engram · DEN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Adam Trautman · DEN · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 18 median · 0–28 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN · WR

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 10 median · 0–44 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 37 median · 0–73 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 40 median · 16–75 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DEN 21.3 — ARI 21.7

ARI · 47.8% win probability

Margin
ARI 0.4
Total
43.1

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DENWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bo Nix · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Jarrett Stidham · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Sam Ehlinger · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — J.K. Dobbins · Full

RB official #2 — RJ Harvey · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Tyler Badie · Out

TE official #1 — Evan Engram · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Adam Trautman · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Nate Adkins · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Dallen Bentley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Marvin Mims Jr. · Full

WR official #2 — Troy Franklin · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaylen Waddle · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Lil'Jordan Humphrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Courtland Sutton · Availability unknown

ARIWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jacoby Brissett · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Gardner Minshew II · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Carson Beck · Questionable

RB official #1 — Tyler Allgeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jeremiyah Love · Out

RB official #3 — Bam Knight · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Trey McBride · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Elijah Higgins · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Teagan Quitoriano · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Shawn Bowman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Michael Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Simi Fehoko · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Brooks · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Reggie Virgil · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kendrick Bourne · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Devin Duvernay · Did not participate

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDENARI
Projected points22.219.6
Win probability (regulation)55.6%39.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status67 updates35 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DEN recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 32.3.

ARI recent scoring form vs DEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.0; opponent allowed 18.3.