PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

GB at DET

Sunday, October 25 · 3:25 PM CDT

GB 22.9 — DET 24.4

Nearly even · DET 51.2%

Projected total 47.4 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 2:27 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. DET: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)GB 22.9 — DET 24.4Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total47.480% of simulations: 30–65
Expected margin · implied spreadDET by 1.5 · DET −1.5Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultGB 44.6% · DET 51.2%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.3% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
GB score10.023.035.022.9
DET score13.024.037.024.4
Combined total30.047.065.047.4
DET margin (home − away)-15.01.018.01.5

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

GB wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ DET wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 2:25 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 2:25 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 2:27:59 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
GB: INACTIVES CAPTURED. DET: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
GB: 6. DET: 5.
Record
8c927332c790e9b4 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jared Goff · DET

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Jordan Love · GB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Jahmyr Gibbs · DET

Opportunities
21.2 mean · 21.0 median · 11.0–30.0 80%
Carries
15.9 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–23.0 80%
Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Rushing yards
61 mean · 57 median · 24–98 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 30 median · 8–57 80%
Total TD
52% 1+
High

Sione Vaki · DET

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

MarShawn Lloyd · GB

Opportunities
10.5 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Carries
8.2 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
32 mean · 28 median · 16–53 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

Kaleb Johnson · GB

Opportunities
6.5 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
Carries
5.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
31 mean · 24 median · 14–61 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–17 80%
Total TD
22% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Sam LaPorta · DET · TE

Targets
7.1 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
64 mean · 61 median · 36–96 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
High

Brock Wright · DET · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR

Targets
9.6 mean · 10.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
6.3 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 74 median · 3–122 80%
Receiving TD
40% 1+
High

Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR

Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 29 median · 0–77 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
Medium

Jameson Williams · DET · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 45 median · 14–93 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

Tucker Kraft · GB · TE

Targets
5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 48 median · 14–84 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Jonnu Smith · GB · TE

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Matthew Golden · GB · WR

Targets
7.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 50 median · 19–129 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Medium

J. Michael Sturdivant · GB · WR

Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 0 median · 0–35 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Christian Watson · GB · WR

Targets
8.2 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
82 mean · 85 median · 35–135 80%
Receiving TD
48% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

GB 21.6 — DET 25.7

DET · 58.7% win probability

Margin
DET 4.1
Total
47.4

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

GBWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jordan Love · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Tyrod Taylor · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — MarShawn Lloyd · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Pierre Strong Jr. · Practice squad

RB official #3 — Kaleb Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Tucker Kraft · Current status: Returned To Practice

TE official #2 — Jonnu Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Mark Redman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Matthew Golden · Limited

WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Questionable

WR official #1 — Savion Williams · Limited

WR official #2 — J. Michael Sturdivant · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Christian Watson · Limited

WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Questionable

DETWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jared Goff · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joshua Dobbs · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jahmyr Gibbs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Sione Vaki · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jacob Saylors · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Sam LaPorta · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brock Wright · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tyler Conklin · Reserve status: Active Pup

WR official #1 — Amon-Ra St. Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jameson Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Isaac TeSlaa · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tay Martin · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonGBDET
Projected points22.924.4
Win probability (regulation)44.6%51.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status54 updates24 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 137 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 52 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DET recent scoring form vs GB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 34.0; opponent allowed 11.3.

GB recent scoring form vs DET prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 25.7.