PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

LAR at LV

Sunday, October 25 · 3:25 PM CDT

LAR 24.0 — LV 21.2

LAR slight edge · LAR 56.7%

Projected total 45.2 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects LAR slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 2:28 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. LA: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) LV: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)LAR 24.0 — LV 21.2Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total45.280% of simulations: 29–63
Expected margin · implied spreadLAR by 2.9 · LAR −2.9Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultLAR 56.7% · LV 39.3%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.0% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
LAR score13.024.036.024.0
LV score10.021.034.021.2
Combined total29.045.063.045.2
LV margin (home − away)-20.0-3.014.0-2.9

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

LAR wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ LV wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 2:25 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 2:25 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 2:28:20 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
LA: INACTIVES PARTIAL. LV: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
LA: 6. LV: 6.
Record
cf0d9cf5ec427e03 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Kirk Cousins · LV

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Matthew Stafford · LAR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Ashton Jeanty · LV

Opportunities
16.7 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–26.0 80%
Carries
12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 43 median · 18–74 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 20 median · 0–45 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Mike Washington Jr. · LV

Opportunities
8.8 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–18.0 80%
Carries
7.2 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
32 mean · 27 median · 0–67 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Blake Corum · LAR

Opportunities
9.5 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
8.2 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 39 median · 20–74 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

Kyren Williams · LAR

Opportunities
19.3 mean · 18.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
Carries
14.6 mean · 14.0 median · 9.0–22.0 80%
Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
64 mean · 59 median · 35–101 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 22 median · 7–44 80%
Total TD
44% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Brock Bowers · LV · TE

Targets
9.4 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 71 median · 27–117 80%
Receiving TD
43% 1+
High

Michael Mayer · LV · TE

Targets
4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 20 median · 0–68 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Jalen Nailor · LV · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 23 median · 0–50 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Tre Tucker · LV · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 53 median · 26–80 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Deven Thompkins · LV · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 29 median · 13–45 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

Davis Allen · LAR · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–35 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Colby Parkinson · LAR · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 18 median · 0–36 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Davante Adams · LAR · WR

Targets
7.4 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 57 median · 27–98 80%
Receiving TD
43% 1+
High

CJ Daniels · LAR · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Puka Nacua · LAR · WR

Targets
11.0 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Receptions
7.7 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receiving yards
103 mean · 97 median · 43–164 80%
Receiving TD
42% 1+
High

13 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAR 23.0 — LV 23.3

LV · 47.2% win probability

Margin
LV 0.3
Total
46.2

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LARWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Matthew Stafford · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Stetson Bennett IV · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Ty Simpson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kyren Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Blake Corum · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dean Connors · Waived

TE official #1 — Davis Allen · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Tyler Higbee · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Colby Parkinson · Full

TE official #2 — Max Klare · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Konata Mumpfield · Full

WR official #2 — CJ Daniels · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Alex Bachman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Puka Nacua · Questionable

WR official #2 — Jordan Whittington · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Tutu Atwell · Availability unknown

LVWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kirk Cousins · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Aidan O'Connell · Did not participate

RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Full

RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Questionable

RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Dareke Young · Full

WR official #3 — Cody White · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLARLV
Projected points24.021.2
Win probability (regulation)56.7%39.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status58 updates76 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 142 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAR recent scoring form vs LV prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.7; opponent allowed 36.0.

LV recent scoring form vs LAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.7; opponent allowed 25.0.