PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

KC at SEA

Sunday, October 25 · 7:20 PM CDT

KC 19.0 — SEA 21.8

SEA slight edge · SEA 55.3%

Projected total 40.7 · Confidence: frozen

PardonMe projects SEA slight edge.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 25, 6:23 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Projected score (mean)KC 19.0 — SEA 21.8Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total40.780% of simulations: 25–58
Expected margin · implied spreadSEA by 2.8 · SEA −2.8Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultKC 40.3% · SEA 55.3%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.4% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
KC score7.019.031.019.0
SEA score10.021.034.021.8
Combined total25.040.058.040.7
SEA margin (home − away)-14.03.020.02.8

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

KC wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ SEA wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 25, 6:20 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 25, 6:20 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 25, 6:23:07 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_DECISION_GRADE · decision grade: yes
Availability evidence
KC: INACTIVES CAPTURED. SEA: INACTIVES CAPTURED.
Games of usage history
KC: 5. SEA: 6.
Record
a29902164e22a3a8 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Patrick Mahomes · KC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Sam Darnold · SEA

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
6.5 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
Carries
4.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
24 mean · 18 median · 0–55 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jadarian Price · SEA

Opportunities
10.0 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Carries
8.0 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
38 mean · 33 median · 15–66 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 7 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
27% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Emanuel Wilson · SEA

Opportunities
14.8 mean · 14.0 median · 6.0–24.0 80%
Carries
13.5 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
52 mean · 47 median · 20–89 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Noah Gray · KC · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 34 median · 12–68 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Cyrus Allen · KC · WR

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 0 median · 0–48 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 39 median · 14–76 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

AJ Barner · SEA · TE

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 31 median · 11–60 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Eric Saubert · SEA · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Montorie Foster Jr. · SEA · WR

Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR

Targets
9.8 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
7.0 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
95 mean · 100 median · 46–154 80%
Receiving TD
49% 1+
High

9 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

KC 22.0 — SEA 23.6

SEA · 50.4% win probability

Margin
SEA 1.6
Total
45.6

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

KCWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Patrick Mahomes · Full

QB official #2 — Justin Fields · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Garrett Nussmeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emmett Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Brashard Smith · Out

TE official #1 — Travis Kelce · Limited

TE official #2 — Noah Gray · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jared Wiley · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Jake Briningstool · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashee Rice · Out

WR official #2 — Jalen Royals · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Worthy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Nikko Remigio · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Cyrus Allen · Full

SEAWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth order is ambiguous.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Sam Darnold · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Drew Lock · Questionable

QB official #3 — Jalen Milroe · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Emanuel Wilson · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #2 — George Holani · Full

RB official #3 — Velus Jones Jr. · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Robert Henry Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — AJ Barner · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Eric Saubert · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Elijah Arroyo · Current status: Supported Unavailable

TE official #4 — Nick Kallerup · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tory Horton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashid Shaheed · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Cooper Kupp · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonKCSEA
Projected points19.021.8
Win probability (regulation)40.3%55.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status38 updates46 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 130 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 48 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

SEA recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.3; opponent allowed 14.3.

KC recent scoring form vs SEA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.3; opponent allowed 24.0.