PardonMe PA-1 · frozen forecast

DAL at PHI

Monday, October 26 · 7:15 PM CDT

DAL 23.1 — PHI 23.1

Nearly even · DAL 47.7%

Projected total 46.2 · Confidence: limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
PA-1 simulation · forecast of record

Game simulation

Frozen Oct 26, 6:18 PM CDT · 57 min before kickoff · 4,000 simulations

Limited input. DAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) PHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (INACTIVES_PARTIAL) Missing evidence stays unknown, not healthy.

Projected score (mean)DAL 23.1 — PHI 23.1Average of the simulated regulation scores
Expected total46.280% of simulations: 30–64
Expected margin · implied spreadDAL by 0.1 · DAL −0.1Spread is the model-implied line from the mean margin, not a sportsbook line
Regulation resultDAL 47.7% · PHI 47.8%Tie after 60 minutes: 4.5% · overtime not modelled

Scoring range

SimulatedLow (10th)MedianHigh (90th)Mean
DAL score10.023.035.023.1
PHI score12.023.035.023.1
Combined total29.946.064.046.2
PHI margin (home − away)-17.00.016.0-0.1

The 10th–90th percentile band holds 80% of the simulated games. It describes this simulation, not a guaranteed outcome.

DAL wins by more ◂margin, 3-point bins (-30 to +30)▸ PHI wins by more
How this forecast was made →
Model
PA-1 · D4 v1.4 (clock_v2, eoh_timing, half_hazard, team_strength, qb_cap) · contract pa1-live-2026-v1.0
Simulations
4,000 regulation games, primary arm A_DJ
Information cutoff
Oct 26, 6:15 PM CDT (evidence as of Oct 26, 6:15 PM CDT)
Frozen
Oct 26, 6:18:04 PM CDT · on time · before kickoff
Evidence class
FROZEN_LIMITED_INPUT · decision grade: no
Availability evidence
DAL: INACTIVES PARTIAL. PHI: INACTIVES PARTIAL.
Games of usage history
DAL: 6. PHI: 6.
Record
680a3af6c1ad3b83 (ledger entry) · code e2eb0e80

Limitations

  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
  • Regulation only: overtime is not modelled, so a regulation tie is shown as a tie, not split between the teams.
  • Forecast of record is arm A_DJ; the shadow arm B_DJ and reference arm A_D are not shown.
  • The score ranges describe the simulation, not a guarantee; PA-1 has no validated edge over sportsbook lines.

One simulated score distribution produces every number above. It is shown for information, not as a betting recommendation, and has not been validated against sportsbook lines.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Dak Prescott · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Jalen Hurts · PHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Javonte Williams · DAL

Opportunities
20.4 mean · 20.0 median · 15.0–27.0 80%
Carries
17.0 mean · 17.0 median · 11.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
60 mean · 59 median · 36–86 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 5–31 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Emari Demercado · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Opportunities
10.7 mean · 11.0 median · 0.0–18.0 80%
Carries
9.4 mean · 10.0 median · 0.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 50 median · 0–85 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Carson Steele · PHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 23 median · 15–48 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

Targets
9.2 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Receptions
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Receiving yards
81 mean · 79 median · 16–158 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 54 median · 13–107 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 41 median · 11–72 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Darius Cooper · PHI · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 26 median · 13–65 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Medium

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

8 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DAL 20.7 — PHI 22.5

PHI · 51.1% win probability

Margin
PHI 1.9
Total
43.2

As of Oct 20, 2026 17:31 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DALWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Dak Prescott · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Sam Howell · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Javonte Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyler Goodson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Emari Demercado · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Jake Ferguson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brevyn Spann-Ford · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Luke Schoonmaker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — George Pickens · Limited

WR official #2 — Camden Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — CeeDee Lamb · Full

WR official #2 — Jonathan Mingo · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ryan Flournoy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — KaVontae Turpin · Did not participate

PHIWeek 7 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tanner McKee · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cole Payton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Saquon Barkley · Questionable

RB official #2 — Dameon Pierce · Released

TE official #1 — Dallas Goedert · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Johnny Mundt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DeVonta Smith · Out

WR official #2 — Hollywood Brown · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Dontayvion Wicks · Out

WR official #2 — Darius Cooper · Full

WR official #1 — Makai Lemon · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Elijah Moore · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Britain Covey · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDALPHI
Projected points23.123.1
Win probability (regulation)47.7%47.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status28 updates70 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 146 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 58 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PHI recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 25.7.

DAL recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.0; opponent allowed 22.7.