EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

BAL at BUF

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

BAL 22.6 — BUF 28.0

BUF edge · BUF 63.8%

Projected total 50.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects BUF edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:29:26 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreBAL 22.6 — BUF 28.0
Expected total50.6
Regulation win probabilitiesBAL 32.2% · BUF 63.8%Tie 4.0%

Quarterbacks modeled

BAL Lamar Jackson (canonical ID 202) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.7419
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:29:26 AM CST.

BUF Josh Allen (canonical ID 277) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5112
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:29:26 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 01a56195a6d1479601f00824b78ede15196280bcac86cc8144df6ce0a372cec1

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:29:26 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • BUF: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • BAL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • BUF: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:02.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Lamar Jackson · BAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Josh Allen · BUF

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Derrick Henry · BAL

Opportunities
20.6 mean · 20.0 median · 11.0–28.0 80%
Carries
19.4 mean · 19.0 median · 10.0–27.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
85 mean · 83 median · 38–133 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
51% 1+
High

Justice Hill · BAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

James Cook III · BUF

Opportunities
20.4 mean · 20.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Carries
18.0 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
81 mean · 81 median · 37–122 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 12 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Ty Johnson · BUF

Opportunities
5.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Carries
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
22 mean · 18 median · 0–49 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 10 median · 0–34 80%
Total TD
22% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mark Andrews · BAL · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 26 median · 9–43 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Josh Cuevas · BAL · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 23 median · 0–57 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 27 median · 13–68 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Zay Flowers · BAL · WR

Targets
9.6 mean · 9.0 median · 7.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
7.0 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
105 mean · 96 median · 65–157 80%
Receiving TD
46% 1+
High

Devontez Walker · BAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 41 median · 14–81 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Targets
4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 28 median · 9–56 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 41 median · 14–81 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 42 median · 14–83 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 48 median · 14–73 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BAL 20.0 — BUF 27.0

BUF · 65.6% win probability

Margin
BUF 7.0
Total
47.0

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BALWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Lamar Jackson · Full

QB official #2 — Tyler Huntley · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #3 — Joe Fagnano · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Vannett · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full

TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Limited

WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ja'Kobi Lane · Questionable

WR official #3 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown

BUFWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Josh Allen · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Kyle Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — James Cook III · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Ray Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Ty Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Kincaid · Questionable

TE official #2 — Dawson Knox · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jackson Hawes · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Keleki Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Khalil Shakir · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Greg Dortch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DJ Moore · Questionable

WR official #2 — Skyler Bell · Inactive for Week 1

WR official #1 — Keon Coleman · Full

WR official #2 — Joshua Palmer · Inactive for Week 5

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBALBUF
Projected points22.628.0
Win probability (regulation)32.2%63.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status56 updates61 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 111 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 38 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BAL recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 31.0.

BUF recent scoring form vs BAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 32.0; opponent allowed 23.7.