EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

TEN at CIN

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

TEN 18.0 — CIN 28.0

CIN clear edge · CIN 76.9%

Projected total 46.0 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects CIN clear edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:29:53 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreTEN 18.0 — CIN 28.0
Expected total46.0
Regulation win probabilitiesTEN 19.9% · CIN 76.9%Tie 3.3%

Quarterbacks modeled

CIN Joe Burrow (canonical ID 557) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2423
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:29:53 AM CST.

TEN Cam Ward (canonical ID 2787) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.2796
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:29:53 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 1a94f79544e2bc35503d6950c83a9af0a54611d05ccdbed0a46920d10f8488b2

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:29:53 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • TEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • CIN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • TEN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:02.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:04.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Joe Burrow · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Cam Ward · TEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Chase Brown · CIN

Opportunities
14.6 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
Carries
10.7 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–16.0 80%
Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
40 mean · 39 median · 18–63 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 18 median · 5–37 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
High

Samaje Perine · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Tony Pollard · TEN

Opportunities
17.7 mean · 19.0 median · 9.0–25.0 80%
Carries
15.8 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–23.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 60 median · 23–93 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Tyjae Spears · TEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Drew Sample · CIN · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 6–30 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR

Targets
8.1 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
64 mean · 60 median · 14–107 80%
Receiving TD
37% 1+
High

Tee Higgins · CIN · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
73 mean · 63 median · 31–123 80%
Receiving TD
39% 1+
High

Andrei Iosivas · CIN · WR

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 21 median · 0–57 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 14 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Medium

Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 30 median · 0–79 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 41 median · 0–79 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

Carnell Tate · TEN · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

9 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TEN 18.5 — CIN 25.5

CIN · 66.8% win probability

Margin
CIN 7.0
Total
44.0

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TENWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Cam Ward · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mitchell Trubisky · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Tony Pollard · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyjae Spears · Out

RB official #3 — Julius Chestnut · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Michael Carter · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Gunnar Helm · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Daniel Bellinger · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Kylen Granson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — David Martin-Robinson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Calvin Ridley · Questionable

WR official #2 — Chimere Dike · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Carnell Tate · Out

WR official #2 — Elic Ayomanor · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Wan'Dale Robinson · Current status: Transaction Effective

CINWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

HB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

HB official #1 — Chase Brown · Availability unknown

HB official #2 — Samaje Perine · Availability unknown

HB official #3 — Tahj Brooks · Availability unknown

QB official #1 — Joe Burrow · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joe Flacco · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Drew Sample · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mike Gesicki · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jack Endries · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ja'Marr Chase · Questionable

WR official #1 — Dohnte Meyers · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tee Higgins · Questionable

WR official #2 — Colbie Young · Questionable

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTENCIN
Projected points18.028.0
Win probability (regulation)19.9%76.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status43 updates37 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 139 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 47 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs TEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.7; opponent allowed 24.3.

TEN recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 19.7.