EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

ARI at DAL

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

ARI 23.3 — DAL 29.0

DAL edge · DAL 65.3%

Projected total 52.3 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects DAL edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:30:24 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreARI 23.3 — DAL 29.0
Expected total52.3
Regulation win probabilitiesARI 31.2% · DAL 65.3%Tie 3.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

ARI Jacoby Brissett (canonical ID 7) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.4821
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:30:24 AM CST.

DAL Dak Prescott (canonical ID 759) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5332
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:30:24 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 58fbbe3d2d26c6fc3910bec946b81c1e4dc21629785d931fe0f874a659f40176

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:30:24 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ARI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • DAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • ARI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • DAL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:03.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:01.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Dak Prescott · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
11.7 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
Carries
9.4 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
34 mean · 30 median · 15–59 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 10 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Opportunities
15.2 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–26.0 80%
Carries
12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
47 mean · 43 median · 22–80 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
Medium

Javonte Williams · DAL

Opportunities
19.0 mean · 18.0 median · 13.0–26.0 80%
Carries
16.1 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
60 mean · 58 median · 35–89 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 14 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Emari Demercado · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 19 median · 8–39 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
8.2 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
6.0 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 55 median · 19–82 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 43 median · 12–75 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Jalen Brooks · ARI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Michael Wilson · ARI · WR

Targets
7.3 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 50 median · 13–101 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Targets
4.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 24 median · 7–40 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 18 median · 8–37 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

Targets
10.2 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
Receptions
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Receiving yards
87 mean · 80 median · 29–156 80%
Receiving TD
40% 1+
High

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 55 median · 14–96 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ARI 19.3 — DAL 24.5

DAL · 61.3% win probability

Margin
DAL 5.3
Total
43.8

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ARIWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jacoby Brissett · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Gardner Minshew II · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Carson Beck · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Tyler Allgeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jeremiyah Love · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Bam Knight · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Evan Hull · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Trey McBride · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Elijah Higgins · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Teagan Quitoriano · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kendrick Bourne · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Reggie Virgil · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Devin Duvernay · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Michael Wilson · Limited

WR official #2 — Simi Fehoko · Availability unknown

DALWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Dak Prescott · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Sam Howell · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Javonte Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyler Goodson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brevyn Spann-Ford · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Jake Ferguson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Luke Schoonmaker · Did not participate

WR official #1 — George Pickens · Limited

WR official #2 — Camden Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — CeeDee Lamb · Full

WR official #2 — Jonathan Mingo · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ryan Flournoy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — KaVontae Turpin · Did not participate

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonARIDAL
Projected points23.329.0
Win probability (regulation)31.2%65.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates28 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 157 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DAL recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.3; opponent allowed 30.3.

ARI recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.3; opponent allowed 22.7.