EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

MIN at DET

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

MIN 21.7 — DET 20.9

Nearly even · MIN 49.9%

Projected total 42.7 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:30:54 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreMIN 21.7 — DET 20.9
Expected total42.7
Regulation win probabilitiesMIN 49.9% · DET 45.9%Tie 4.3%

Quarterbacks modeled

DET Jared Goff (canonical ID 925) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.6213
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:30:54 AM CST.

MIN Kyler Murray (canonical ID 1850) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1216
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:30:54 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record f82f7551e9c14ea265c2270b1472637e4565bc0a1bff935812ba8c966ed2d3c1

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:30:54 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • DET: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • MIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • DET: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • MIN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:03.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:04.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jared Goff · DET

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Kyler Murray · MIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Jahmyr Gibbs · DET

Opportunities
26.2 mean · 26.0 median · 15.0–38.0 80%
Carries
20.1 mean · 20.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Rushing yards
66 mean · 64 median · 31–102 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 33 median · 9–60 80%
Total TD
55% 1+
High

Sione Vaki · DET

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Demond Claiborne · MIN

Opportunities
5.3 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–14.0 80%
Carries
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
25 mean · 20 median · 0–59 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 0 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN

Opportunities
16.9 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–27.0 80%
Carries
14.2 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
61 mean · 56 median · 30–96 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Sam LaPorta · DET · TE

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 49 median · 13–86 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Brock Wright · DET · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR

Targets
9.2 mean · 10.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
6.3 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 76 median · 4–123 80%
Receiving TD
39% 1+
High

Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR

Targets
4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 29 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Jameson Williams · DET · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 63 median · 16–110 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 31 median · 12–59 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Josh Oliver · MIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jordan Addison · MIN · WR

Targets
6.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 44 median · 17–98 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR

Targets
7.8 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
59 mean · 62 median · 26–87 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

MIN 20.0 — DET 24.9

DET · 60.8% win probability

Margin
DET 4.9
Total
45.0

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

MINWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kyler Murray · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Carson Wentz · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Max Brosmer · Waived

RB official #1 — Aaron Jones Sr. · Limited

RB official #1 — Jordan Mason · Questionable

RB official #2 — Demond Claiborne · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — DeeJay Dallas · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — T.J. Hockenson · Full

TE official #2 — Gavin Bartholomew · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Justin Jefferson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tai Felton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jordan Addison · Full

WR official #1 — Jauan Jennings · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Myles Price · Availability unknown

DETWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jared Goff · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joshua Dobbs · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jahmyr Gibbs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Sione Vaki · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jacob Saylors · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Sam LaPorta · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brock Wright · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tyler Conklin · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #4 — Jackson Meeks · Practice squad

WR official #1 — Amon-Ra St. Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — DeAndre Carter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jameson Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Isaac TeSlaa · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tay Martin · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonMINDET
Projected points21.720.9
Win probability (regulation)49.9%45.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates24 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 144 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 50 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DET recent scoring form vs MIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 30.3; opponent allowed 11.0.

MIN recent scoring form vs DET prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 23.3.