EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

LV at NYJ

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

LV 23.9 — NYJ 21.7

LV slight edge · LV 53.2%

Projected total 45.7 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects LV slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:31:26 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLV 23.9 — NYJ 21.7
Expected total45.7
Regulation win probabilitiesLV 53.2% · NYJ 42.2%Tie 4.6%

Quarterbacks modeled

LV Kirk Cousins (canonical ID 1466) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4807
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:31:26 AM CST.

NYJ Geno Smith (canonical ID 2225) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0080
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:31:26 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 5b205318cde4b1cc762b498589b68243492536f0f439a433c8439664e292eda6

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:31:26 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • LV: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • NYJ: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • LV: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NYJ: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:04.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:03.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Kirk Cousins · LV

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Geno Smith · NYJ

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Ashton Jeanty · LV

Opportunities
17.0 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–27.0 80%
Carries
12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–21.0 80%
Targets
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
44 mean · 40 median · 18–74 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 20 median · 0–47 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Mike Washington Jr. · LV

Opportunities
8.3 mean · 7.0 median · 0.0–18.0 80%
Carries
6.7 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
32 mean · 27 median · 0–67 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Medium

Braelon Allen · NYJ

Opportunities
18.5 mean · 16.0 median · 11.0–30.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
55 mean · 47 median · 26–95 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Breece Hall · NYJ

Opportunities
17.1 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–22.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–20.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
58 mean · 56 median · 31–87 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 16 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Brock Bowers · LV · TE

Targets
7.7 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
62 mean · 61 median · 26–107 80%
Receiving TD
35% 1+
High

Michael Mayer · LV · TE

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 30 median · 9–78 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Jalen Nailor · LV · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 22 median · 0–47 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Tre Tucker · LV · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 44 median · 15–87 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 15 median · 6–37 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 28 median · 11–54 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Omar Cooper Jr. · NYJ · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
70 mean · 69 median · 18–120 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 40 median · 0–79 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LV 20.3 — NYJ 23.7

NYJ · 56.0% win probability

Margin
NYJ 3.4
Total
44.0

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LVWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kirk Cousins · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Aidan O'Connell · Did not participate

RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Full

RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Questionable

RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Dareke Young · Full

WR official #3 — Cody White · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full

NYJWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Geno Smith · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cade Klubnik · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Breece Hall · Questionable

RB official #2 — Braelon Allen · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Isaiah Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Kene Nwangwu · Questionable

TE official #1 — Mason Taylor · Full

TE official #2 — Kenyon Sadiq · Questionable

TE official #1 — Jeremy Ruckert · Limited

TE official #2 — Jelani Woods · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Adonai Mitchell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tim Patrick · Questionable

WR official #3 — Malik McClain · Waived

WR official #1 — Garrett Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Omar Cooper Jr. · Questionable

WR official #3 — Isaiah Williams · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLVNYJ
Projected points23.921.7
Win probability (regulation)53.2%42.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status76 updates73 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 136 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NYJ recent scoring form vs LV prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 37.7.

LV recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.7; opponent allowed 22.0.