EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

CLE at PIT

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

CLE 17.1 — PIT 21.6

PIT edge · PIT 61.1%

Projected total 38.7 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects PIT edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:31:59 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCLE 17.1 — PIT 21.6
Expected total38.7
Regulation win probabilitiesCLE 34.2% · PIT 61.1%Tie 4.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

CLE Deshaun Watson (canonical ID 680) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1758
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:31:58 AM CST.

PIT Aaron Rodgers (canonical ID 2409) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3978
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:31:58 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record d46576ab79571340f485b4e7e3d8e994e3f7063ab3adce1943b56823fa217d8b

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:31:58 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • PIT: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • CLE: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • PIT: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:04.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:02.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Deshaun Watson · CLE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Aaron Rodgers · PIT

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Quinshon Judkins · CLE

Opportunities
15.8 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–23.0 80%
Carries
13.2 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 43 median · 24–67 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Raheim Sanders · CLE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Eli Heidenreich · PIT

Opportunities
4.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Carries
3.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
21 mean · 17 median · 0–55 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
18% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jaylen Warren · PIT

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 33 median · 1–76 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Medium

Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–21 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Denzel Boston · CLE · WR

Targets
6.0 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 52 median · 19–85 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 35 median · 12–69 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR

Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 20 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 33 median · 12–53 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Darnell Washington · PIT · TE

Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 31 median · 10–53 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

DK Metcalf · PIT · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 41 median · 15–90 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 20 median · 0–70 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Roman Wilson · PIT · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 40 median · 13–79 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
Medium

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CLE 18.8 — PIT 24.4

PIT · 62.5% win probability

Margin
PIT 5.7
Total
43.2

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CLEWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Deshaun Watson · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Shedeur Sanders · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Dillon Gabriel · Out

QB official #4 — Taylen Green · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Dylan Sampson · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown

PITWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Aaron Rodgers · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Mason Rudolph · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Will Howard · Inactive for Week 4

QB official #4 — Drew Allar · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Jaylen Warren · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Rico Dowdle · Limited

RB official #3 — Eli Heidenreich · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #4 — Travis Homer · Released

RB official #5 — Lew Nichols · Waived

TE official #1 — Pat Freiermuth · Questionable

TE official #1 — Darnell Washington · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Robert Tonyan · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Ben Skowronek · Questionable

WR official #1 — DK Metcalf · Questionable

WR official #2 — Kaden Wetjen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Germie Bernard · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCLEPIT
Projected points17.121.6
Win probability (regulation)34.2%61.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates74 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 115 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 36 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PIT recent scoring form vs CLE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.3; opponent allowed 17.0.

CLE recent scoring form vs PIT prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 17.0.