EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

ATL at TB

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

ATL 21.5 — TB 21.9

Nearly even · TB 48.9%

Projected total 43.4 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:32:33 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreATL 21.5 — TB 21.9
Expected total43.4
Regulation win probabilitiesATL 46.9% · TB 48.9%Tie 4.3%

Quarterbacks modeled

ATL Michael Penix Jr. (canonical ID 118) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.7276
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:32:33 AM CST.

TB Baker Mayfield (canonical ID 2680) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1244
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:32:33 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record b74033d794508dc8ce3a4f6bb846ea667e7cfb2b6ca83c500951c7e13a9ea399

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:32:33 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ATL: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • TB: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • ATL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • TB: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:04.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:02.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Tua Tagovailoa · ATL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Baker Mayfield · TB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Bijan Robinson · ATL

Opportunities
19.1 mean · 19.0 median · 8.0–28.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
63 mean · 64 median · 19–104 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 19 median · 0–44 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
High

Bucky Irving · TB

Opportunities
17.6 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–25.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
Targets
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 56 median · 30–89 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 13 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 34 median · 0–79 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 15 median · 0–25 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 28 median · 14–57 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Drake London · ATL · WR

Targets
8.3 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
87 mean · 83 median · 36–130 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 16 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Payne Durham · TB · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–41 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Cade Otton · TB · TE

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 29 median · 10–50 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Emeka Egbuka · TB · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Chris Godwin Jr. · TB · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 43 median · 22–73 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Jalen McMillan · TB · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ATL 20.5 — TB 25.0

TB · 59.7% win probability

Margin
TB 4.6
Total
45.5

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ATLWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Full

QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2

QB official #3 — Andy Dalton · Inactive for Week 7

QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 6

RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Brian Robinson Jr. · Inactive for Week 7

TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Muse · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Questionable

WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Drake London · Limited

WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad

TBWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Baker Mayfield · Full

QB official #2 — Jalon Daniels · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Bucky Irving · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kenny Gainwell · Questionable

RB official #3 — Sean Tucker · Full

TE official #1 — Cade Otton · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #2 — Payne Durham · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Ko Kieft · Did not participate

TE official #4 — Bauer Sharp · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Emeka Egbuka · Out

WR official #2 — Tez Johnson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ted Hurst III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — David Sills V · Reserve/Injured

WR official #1 — Chris Godwin Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kameron Johnson · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonATLTB
Projected points21.521.9
Win probability (regulation)46.9%48.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status43 updates75 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 148 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 48 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

ATL recent scoring form vs TB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 18.3.

TB recent scoring form vs ATL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 28.7; opponent allowed 27.0.