EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

IND at JAX

Sunday, November 1 · 12:00 PM CST

IND 20.5 — JAX 26.5

JAX edge · JAX 67.2%

Projected total 46.9 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects JAX edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:33:03 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreIND 20.5 — JAX 26.5
Expected total46.9
Regulation win probabilitiesIND 29.5% · JAX 67.2%Tie 3.4%

Quarterbacks modeled

IND Daniel Jones (canonical ID 1201) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.4707
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:33:03 AM CST.

JAX Trevor Lawrence (canonical ID 1298) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0910
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:33:03 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record d073faba5e50af33ce3313d27ae414e4ec8af0b55ec581d33f94237361b04c9c

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:33:03 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • IND: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • JAX: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • IND: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • JAX: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:06:03.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Daniel Jones · IND

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Trevor Lawrence · JAX

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
28 mean · 22 median · 7–60 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–16 80%
Total TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
21.2 mean · 22.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
Carries
17.9 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
66 mean · 67 median · 33–96 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 0–37 80%
Total TD
49% 1+
High

Ameer Abdullah · JAX

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 33 median · 18–57 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 36 median · 13–71 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Alec Pierce · IND · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
57 mean · 58 median · 0–115 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 38 median · 19–81 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE

Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Medium

Brenton Strange · JAX · TE

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 48 median · 25–81 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 49 median · 12–87 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

CJ Williams · JAX · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

10 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

IND 19.4 — JAX 25.2

JAX · 62.2% win probability

Margin
JAX 5.8
Total
44.5

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

INDWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Full

QB official #2 — Anthony Richardson Sr. · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Riley Leonard · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Did not participate

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Player 1204 · Questionable

TE official #4 — Pharaoh Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Josh Downs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Anthony Gould · Out

WR official #1 — Keenan Allen · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ashton Dulin · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

JAXWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Trevor Lawrence · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Quinn Ewers · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Bhayshul Tuten · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — LeQuint Allen Jr. · Limited

RB official #3 — Ameer Abdullah · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brenton Strange · Full

TE official #2 — Nate Boerkircher · Limited

TE official #3 — Quintin Morris · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Tanner Koziol · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jakobi Meyers · Questionable

WR official #2 — CJ Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Brian Thomas Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Travis Hunter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Parker Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Josh Cameron · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonINDJAX
Projected points20.526.5
Win probability (regulation)29.5%67.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status30 updates23 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 135 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

IND recent scoring form vs JAX prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 22.7.

JAX recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.0; opponent allowed 25.3.