EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

LAC at LAR

Sunday, November 1 · 3:05 PM CST

LAC 17.9 — LAR 23.3

LAR edge · LAR 64.6%

Projected total 41.2 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects LAR edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:33:33 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLAC 17.9 — LAR 23.3
Expected total41.2
Regulation win probabilitiesLAC 31.2% · LAR 64.6%Tie 4.2%

Quarterbacks modeled

LA Matthew Stafford (canonical ID 1678) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3126
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:33:33 AM CST.

LAC Justin Herbert (canonical ID 1567) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2226
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:33:33 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 63ac429ad1775819aeb3aeb5b2d9985b09c6aa350d0ac95d45bc2f7590c44fae

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:33:33 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • LA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • LAC: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • LA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • LAC: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:21:20.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:21:19.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Justin Herbert · LAC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Matthew Stafford · LAR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Omarion Hampton · LAC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Blake Corum · LAR

Opportunities
11.2 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Carries
9.7 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 41 median · 21–73 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
Medium

Kyren Williams · LAR

Opportunities
16.2 mean · 15.0 median · 10.0–27.0 80%
Carries
12.3 mean · 11.0 median · 7.0–20.0 80%
Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 54 median · 29–95 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 21 median · 7–43 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 23 median · 12–47 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

David Njoku · LAC · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 28 median · 0–56 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Tre' Harris · LAC · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 43 median · 15–71 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 28 median · 0–59 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Ladd McConkey · LAC · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 40 median · 12–83 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Davis Allen · LAR · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 18 median · 0–36 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Medium

Colby Parkinson · LAR · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 28 median · 0–47 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

CJ Daniels · LAR · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Puka Nacua · LAR · WR

Targets
10.0 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
7.3 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receiving yards
96 mean · 97 median · 44–151 80%
Receiving TD
43% 1+
High

Alex Bachman · LAR · WR

Targets
1.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 0 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

11 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAC 18.7 — LAR 25.8

LAR · 66.1% win probability

Margin
LAR 7.1
Total
44.5

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LACWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Justin Herbert · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — DJ Uiagalelei · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Omarion Hampton · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Keaton Mitchell · Limited

RB official #3 — Kimani Vidal · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Charlie Kolar · Full

TE official #2 — Oronde Gadsden · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Player 2502 · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ladd McConkey · Full

WR official #2 — Tre' Harris · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Derius Davis · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Theo Wease Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Quentin Johnston · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brenen Thompson · Out

LARWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Matthew Stafford · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Stetson Bennett IV · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Ty Simpson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kyren Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Blake Corum · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dean Connors · Waived

TE official #1 — Tyler Higbee · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Davis Allen · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Colby Parkinson · Questionable

TE official #2 — Max Klare · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Konata Mumpfield · Full

WR official #2 — CJ Daniels · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Alex Bachman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Puka Nacua · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jordan Whittington · Questionable

WR official #3 — Tutu Atwell · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLACLAR
Projected points17.923.3
Win probability (regulation)31.2%64.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates58 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 136 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 49 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAC recent scoring form vs LAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.3; opponent allowed 25.3.

LAR recent scoring form vs LAC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 28.3; opponent allowed 25.0.