EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

KC at DEN

Sunday, November 1 · 3:25 PM CST

KC 21.5 — DEN 19.3

KC slight edge · KC 54.5%

Projected total 40.8 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects KC slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:34:09 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreKC 21.5 — DEN 19.3
Expected total40.8
Regulation win probabilitiesKC 54.5% · DEN 41.2%Tie 4.3%

Quarterbacks modeled

DEN Bo Nix (canonical ID 854) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1247
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:34:09 AM CST.

KC Patrick Mahomes (canonical ID 1389) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.8128
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:34:09 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 557e0c55ce0996c589d6ba157bf7e0587ebaf6189df34f64b27f410ee2ff462f

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:34:09 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • DEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • KC: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • DEN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • KC: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 14:30:42.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Bo Nix · DEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Patrick Mahomes · KC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

J.K. Dobbins · DEN

Opportunities
13.5 mean · 14.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Carries
12.3 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 55 median · 25–81 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 6 median · 0–20 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
High

RJ Harvey · DEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
6.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
Carries
5.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
27 mean · 22 median · 0–58 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 8 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jaydn Ott · KC

Opportunities
12.3 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
Carries
9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
42 mean · 37 median · 13–78 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 10 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Evan Engram · DEN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Adam Trautman · DEN · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 9 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN · WR

Targets
2.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 10 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 25 median · 0–62 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 40 median · 17–74 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Noah Gray · KC · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 35 median · 13–69 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Andrew Armstrong · KC · WR

Targets
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 22 median · 0–57 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 47 median · 0–82 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 52 median · 27–76 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

10 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

KC 19.1 — DEN 24.2

DEN · 60.6% win probability

Margin
DEN 5.2
Total
43.3

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

KCWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Patrick Mahomes · Full

QB official #2 — Justin Fields · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Garrett Nussmeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emmett Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jaydn Ott · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Travis Kelce · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Gray · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jared Wiley · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Jake Briningstool · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashee Rice · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Royals · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Andrew Armstrong · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Worthy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Nikko Remigio · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Cyrus Allen · Full

DENWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bo Nix · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Jarrett Stidham · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Sam Ehlinger · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — J.K. Dobbins · Full

RB official #2 — RJ Harvey · Out

RB official #3 — Jonah Coleman · Questionable

TE official #1 — Evan Engram · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Adam Trautman · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Nate Adkins · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Dallen Bentley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Marvin Mims Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Troy Franklin · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaylen Waddle · Questionable

WR official #2 — Lil'Jordan Humphrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Courtland Sutton · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonKCDEN
Projected points21.519.3
Win probability (regulation)54.5%41.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status38 updates67 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DEN recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 17.7.

KC recent scoring form vs DEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.3; opponent allowed 15.7.