EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

NE at MIA

Sunday, November 1 · 3:25 PM CST

NE 24.7 — MIA 19.3

NE edge · NE 63.9%

Projected total 44.0 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects NE edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:34:48 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreNE 24.7 — MIA 19.3
Expected total44.0
Regulation win probabilitiesNE 63.9% · MIA 31.9%Tie 4.2%

Quarterbacks modeled

MIA Malik Willis (canonical ID 1770) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2933
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:34:48 AM CST.

NE Drake Maye (canonical ID 1939) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.9436
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:34:48 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 2f46f026bd0db6d569be2ccb7779d40ea613e4f8681711478a0a9e77dde05c04

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:34:48 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • MIA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • NE: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • MIA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NE: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 14:30:42.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Malik Willis · MIA

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Low uncertainty

Drake Maye · NE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

De'Von Achane · MIA

Opportunities
11.4 mean · 11.0 median · 1.0–18.0 80%
Carries
8.9 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 57 median · 0–94 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Ollie Gordon II · MIA

Opportunities
17.4 mean · 15.0 median · 11.0–28.0 80%
Carries
15.0 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 47 median · 27–97 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
41% 1+
Medium

Rhamondre Stevenson · NE

Opportunities
13.1 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
Carries
9.6 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
48 mean · 41 median · 21–82 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 18 median · 0–42 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE

Targets
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 51 median · 27–75 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Chris Bell · MIA · WR

Targets
4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 27 median · 14–68 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
60 mean · 51 median · 18–100 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Hunter Henry · NE · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 35 median · 12–58 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Eli Raridon · NE · TE

Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 37 median · 12–62 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

Romeo Doubs · NE · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 43 median · 12–89 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

DeMario Douglas · NE · WR

Targets
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 50 median · 25–86 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Mack Hollins · NE · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 51 median · 13–89 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NE 24.4 — MIA 21.9

NE · 61.0% win probability

Margin
NE 2.4
Total
46.3

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NEWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Drake Maye · Full

QB official #2 — Tommy DeVito · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Behren Morton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Rhamondre Stevenson · Questionable

RB official #2 — TreVeyon Henderson · Out

RB official #3 — Corey Kiner · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Hunter Henry · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Eli Raridon · Limited

TE official #3 — Tanner Arkin · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cameron Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DeMario Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — A.J. Brown · Out

WR official #2 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

MIAWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Malik Willis · Full

QB official #2 — Kyle McCord · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Ollie Gordon II · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jaylen Wright · Full

RB official #3 — Player 2836 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Greg Dulcich · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Will Kacmarek · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Seydou Traore · Full

TE official #4 — Justin Joly · Out

WR official #1 — Malik Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kevin Coleman Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Chris Bell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Tolbert · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Caleb Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Player 1140 · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNEMIA
Projected points24.719.3
Win probability (regulation)63.9%31.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates35 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 148 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NE recent scoring form vs MIA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 31.7; opponent allowed 23.7.

MIA recent scoring form vs NE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.7; opponent allowed 22.0.